BITCOIN Will the 4H MA50 hold again? Is 22k or 15k next?

Bitcoin's rise since the late September - early October consolidation has been so aggressive in nature that it brings back in mind the period of its 2017 parabolic run. As I talked about in my previous analysis, we currently see BTCUSD consolidating as a result of hitting the 18k barrier. Below I analyze my projections based on key trend-lines on the chart.

** The Fibonacci Channel with the 0.786 interval and the importance of the 4H MA50**
The best way to chart its trend since October 08 (the day it convincingly broke above the 4H MA50 = blue trend-line) is by using the Fibonacci Channel. As you see, the price initially made two touches on the Higher High trend-line (Oct 10 & 12) and one on the Higher Low trend-line (Oct 17) where it also made contact with the 4H MA50. That gave it the necessary boost to break above the Higher High trend-line (1.0 Fibonacci) and make contact with the 1.786. Then after another 2 touches on the 1.786 and a few on the 4H MA50 again, it started the next jump to the 2.786 Fibonacci. As you see every High on this mini Parabolic move in on a +0.786 interval with the latest (November 18) being on the 3.786. And this whole time every contact with the 4H MA50 is not only supporting but also gives the required push to reach the next 0.786 Fib. It goes without saying that as long as the 4H MA50 holds, this parabolic rise can be maintained.

** The RSI and LMACD **
As seen on the chart, every first High on the Fibonacci Channel is also a High entry on the RSI Resistance Zone (red zone). Similarly every contact with the 4H MA50 is a hit on the RSI Support Zone (green zone). That helps at finding out where the bullish legs get exhausted and take profit (Resistance) and where the move gets weak enough again to buy (in case the price hasn't hit the 4H MA50). In addition the LMACD makes a Bearish Cross shortly after every first Fib price High, which essentially signals the start of the new accumulation mini phase.

** So what if the 4H MA50 holds again? **
That's a rather straightforward answer. BTC should make at least another touch (or near touch) on the 3.786 Fib slightly above $19000. And if it holds again (the 4H MA50), then jump to the next available 0.786 Fib which is the 4.786. Assuming at least a 70 bar (each bar is one 4H candle) time-period is taken (above 11 days), then the price meets the 3.786 exactly at $22000!

** But what if the 4H MA50 fails? **
This is where it gets trickier. Carefully observe the following chart:


Every parabolic rise since late April that broke its 4H MA50 (blue line) on a strong selling sequence, made contact with the 4H MA500 (green line). Once the 4H MA500 was recovered, a new Parabolic sequence started. Right now the 4H MA500 is a little over 12250 but with the current projection something extraordinary has to happen (not that hard though in the times we live in) in order to make contact with the price below 14000. Especially if the -20% decline sequence holds again (which is from the current top at $15000) as it remarkably did both during the May and September sharp drops.


So what do you think it's gonna be next $22000 if the 4H MA50 holds or $15000 if it doesn't? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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** Previous analysis on the current consolidation: