BITCOIN Potential bearish fractal. How low can we go?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
On this study I look into numerous bearish indicators that must be taken into consideration and more importantly, if this scenario plays out, how low can they lead Bitcoin to. This is a possibility based on the factors analyzed below and it shouldn't be ignored.

** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **

** The RSI fractal and 1D MA50**
First and foremost, it is the RSI on the 1D chart that is forming the same bearish Triangle pattern it did right after the June 2019 market peak. Is this an indication that we've seen our top for some time? Could be as the price has also formed the same Triangle now, even though it is obviously less aggressive, moving on a tighter range than the July - September one. On top of that, the 1D MA50 is reversing downwards for the first time since May. Same thing that took place in August 2019.

** The important of the 1D MA200 and MA1000 **
Back then, when the RSI broke 38.00, Bitcoin tested the 1D MA200 for the first time in 6 months. In fact, if it wasn't for President Xi's speech on China and Blockchain on October 25th 2019, BTC would follow a smooth Channel Down all the way to a bottom on the 1D MA1000. And if it wasn't for the March 12th collapse caused by the COVID led stock market meltdown, that 1D MA1000 contact would have most likely be the absolute bottom of the last 12 months.

It would be not irrational to assume then that if there is not another stock market collapse and worldwide lockdowns, the new support (if the Triangle breaks lower) would be within the 1D MA200 and 1D MA1000.

Note at this point that the 1D MA1000 - 1D MA1500 zone has been the absolute hyper long-term Buy Zone in recent years on BTC's logarithmic growth models.

Do you agree with this scenario? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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Nice work. Totally agree with the two irregular events and less weight should be put on them. However, I'm not sure if the current triangle is comparable to the one at 12k. Yes, RSI is downtrending, but we currently have RSI reversals (hidden bullish divergences), which is something we didn't get in the 12k triangle. That gives me a bullish bias. I'm keeping an eye on the 2D RSI trend. Might turn bearish if we keep failing the RSI MAs.
+4 Reply
TradingShot Phi-Deltalytics
@Phi-Deltalytics, Great work Phi. Keep it up.
Honestly great chartwork
+3 Reply
TradingShot TheCryptAlpha
@TheCryptAlpha, I am happy people appreciate my work.
+1 Reply
I do believe that the top is in for now... Thanks Trading shot I appreciate your work. Check out my idea here, I do believe it correlates with your idea here.

Short/Medium Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Mystery: Covid -19 Shudtown Round 2

There is one more wave to complete this Elliot Waves rising wedge breakout. As out lined by the bottom purple trend line this is a VERY strong support held since the week of May 8/2017. However, it was briefly pierced not all to long ago on week of March 13, 2020. The corona virus panic sell off. Wonder what would happen if we hit corona virus shutdown round 2??? $1300 BTC??? Hopefully, we dont have to figure that one out, although it seems more and more likely every day... Anyways, the TD 9 Sequential indicator flashed a sell signal the candle of June,01/2020. Since then it has started retracing within the large rising wedge . The next leg down highlighted by the yellow line completes the 5th wave down in the Elliot Wave Therory. There is also potentially a Inverse Head and Shoulder reversal breakout which potentially could occur between $6217 USD (Fib Retracement of 23%) and $7700 region. The pattern would confirm if a breakout out occurs at $10072 the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulder. Something to keep an eye one. Although, at this point I do believe that there will be a full retrace to the $5200 USD range. Something else I find useful is the fact that the consolidation periods are usually much longer that the moonshot. The MACD is also looking like there is a bearish cross impending.
+2 Reply
@Jay3000, I agree. It all depends on how the markets will react to COVID's 2nd wave (which will come). If the economies shut down again, people will panic more, so I guess the governments will try to avoid this as much as they can. Whether things will get worse by avoiding lockdowns, that remains to be seen. If the stock market reaches a new low and we enter a 1930s like depression, the last thing we will be arguing about is whether 6000 or 5000 will be a bottom...
IamPhoenix33 TradingShot
@TradingShot, "COVID-19" has never actually been isolated and proven to exist. The Tanzanians made it pretty obvious with their clever tactics. The real question is when will we, humanity, stand up and take back our sovereignty?

Bitcoin is part of the solution to replacing the debt-bondage system enforced by the Rothschild banking dynasty and (their many) associates. Why would hodlers and intelligent humans sell their Bitcoin just because the media is attempting more fear-mongering? Thanks for your excellent charting by the way! 🙏🏼☯️🖤
ArShevelev Jay3000
@Jay3000, I can add my chart to your conclusions with weekly frame

Mostly I am bullish, of course, I could be wrong. But seems like we have correlation between spx and BTC and on weekly frame we have possible fake bearish Engulfing
+2 Reply
TradingShot ArShevelev
@ArShevelev, Excellent work Ar. Of course anyone can be wrong. The key is not to lose sight of the long term.
good job keep it up
+1 Reply
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