BITCOIN Potential bearish fractal. How low can we go?

On this study I look into numerous bearish indicators that must be taken into consideration and more importantly, if this scenario plays out, how low can they lead Bitcoin to. This is a possibility based on the factors analyzed below and it shouldn't be ignored.

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** The RSI fractal and 1D MA50**
First and foremost, it is the RSI on the 1D chart that is forming the same bearish Triangle pattern it did right after the June 2019 market peak. Is this an indication that we've seen our top for some time? Could be as the price has also formed the same Triangle now, even though it is obviously less aggressive, moving on a tighter range than the July - September one. On top of that, the 1D MA50 is reversing downwards for the first time since May. Same thing that took place in August 2019.


** The important of the 1D MA200 and MA1000 **
Back then, when the RSI broke 38.00, Bitcoin tested the 1D MA200 for the first time in 6 months. In fact, if it wasn't for President Xi's speech on China and Blockchain on October 25th 2019, BTC would follow a smooth Channel Down all the way to a bottom on the 1D MA1000. And if it wasn't for the March 12th collapse caused by the COVID led stock market meltdown, that 1D MA1000 contact would have most likely be the absolute bottom of the last 12 months.

It would be not irrational to assume then that if there is not another stock market collapse and worldwide lockdowns, the new support (if the Triangle breaks lower) would be within the 1D MA200 and 1D MA1000.

Note at this point that the 1D MA1000 - 1D MA1500 zone has been the absolute hyper long-term Buy Zone in recent years on BTC's logarithmic growth models.


Do you agree with this scenario? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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