CPI YoY:
Forecast: 3.1%
Previous: 4.0%
Actual: ?
With CPI on the very near horizon, here are my thoughts on what Bitcoin could do in terms of price action:
Bullish scenario - We all know that CPI tends to be a volatile event with aggressive whipsaws in price in both directions irrespective of the outcome. Therefore there is an opportunity to capitalise on the frantic LTF price action.
For the bulls A good place to enter is the local range low if we see a reclaim after a demand zone sweep. I think this is fairly likely and ideally we see price move to the downside first upon the data release as in general, THE FIRST MOVE IS THE WRONG MOVE... following this initial move to the downside a reclaim would be primed for local highs in my opinion. If there is no reclaim then unfortunately there really isn't much support on the way down as BTC would seek to fill the FVG at 27K. A reaction off this level will leave BTC in a good place to attack 32.5k, reinforced with the ETF narrative and decision coming not too far down the line.
Bearish scenario - As was suggested previously, the first move is wrong, therefore the second move is the true move and for the bears it's the opposite to the bulls. If we see price move to the upside upon data release, I would like to see a SFP of the local range highs before entering short with the range midpoint as first target, then range low, then FVG as final target. If that LTF range high holds after being broken, I would like to see a strong wick up into 32.5K resistance and a reaction off this level to the downside and supply liquidity has been taken. Any slow grind up into this level would have me concerned as to BTC printing a swing fail and not just blasting through after consolidating. If that does play out then I would re-evaluate and stay in cash while doing so.
Reminder: First move is the wrong move.
CPI is usually very volatile and therefor risky. It's easy to FOMO into random positions as a gamble, the market usually wins in those positions.
Forecast: 3.1%
Previous: 4.0%
Actual: ?
With CPI on the very near horizon, here are my thoughts on what Bitcoin could do in terms of price action:
Bullish scenario - We all know that CPI tends to be a volatile event with aggressive whipsaws in price in both directions irrespective of the outcome. Therefore there is an opportunity to capitalise on the frantic LTF price action.
For the bulls A good place to enter is the local range low if we see a reclaim after a demand zone sweep. I think this is fairly likely and ideally we see price move to the downside first upon the data release as in general, THE FIRST MOVE IS THE WRONG MOVE... following this initial move to the downside a reclaim would be primed for local highs in my opinion. If there is no reclaim then unfortunately there really isn't much support on the way down as BTC would seek to fill the FVG at 27K. A reaction off this level will leave BTC in a good place to attack 32.5k, reinforced with the ETF narrative and decision coming not too far down the line.
Bearish scenario - As was suggested previously, the first move is wrong, therefore the second move is the true move and for the bears it's the opposite to the bulls. If we see price move to the upside upon data release, I would like to see a SFP of the local range highs before entering short with the range midpoint as first target, then range low, then FVG as final target. If that LTF range high holds after being broken, I would like to see a strong wick up into 32.5K resistance and a reaction off this level to the downside and supply liquidity has been taken. Any slow grind up into this level would have me concerned as to BTC printing a swing fail and not just blasting through after consolidating. If that does play out then I would re-evaluate and stay in cash while doing so.
Reminder: First move is the wrong move.
CPI is usually very volatile and therefor risky. It's easy to FOMO into random positions as a gamble, the market usually wins in those positions.
Comment:
This is an interesting point in time for BTC. As I outlined in this idea, a swing fail pattern has printed and therefor as per TA a short back to the midpoint would make sense.
However...
This move is not a normal one, Fundamental analysis is driving this rally as the SEC loses its case against Ripple & XRP. Therefore I am not confident in actively shorting against this news, instead I would preferer to buy any dips into support.
BTC & ETH have both stayed range-bound for now despite the altcoin rallies. Once they breakout I think it will add more fuel to the altcoin fire too and we see a second round of bullish price action.
However...
This move is not a normal one, Fundamental analysis is driving this rally as the SEC loses its case against Ripple & XRP. Therefore I am not confident in actively shorting against this news, instead I would preferer to buy any dips into support.
BTC & ETH have both stayed range-bound for now despite the altcoin rallies. Once they breakout I think it will add more fuel to the altcoin fire too and we see a second round of bullish price action.
-0.1% Lower than estimates
Initial move was to the upside, however didn't even break 31K. Looks like the data result had been priced in and as a result the market didn't react.
Most of the move has now retraced back to pre CPI levels, false alarm on the volatility front. Will keep monitoring it just incase.