BTCUSD 1D chart (5/15/2019)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good morning traders. Price continues to range sideways and, as it does, I am seeing and ever-growing list of "It's going to make a new low now," "The bear market isn't over yet," and "The bull market will begin, but not yet" arguments. Most retail traders are still in disbelief at the price advance for the past 5 months. Price must absolutely go way back down again, they say. This is in spite of all the indicators stating otherwise, not the least of which is price action and volume .

For those looking to milk some profits out of a final move up, this sideways movement can be frustrating and stressful. For those looking to scalp, however, this has provided the perfect trading environment. We've had several Discord members taking advantage of the scalping environment and raking in quite a bit of profit in the process. I continue to hold my long position, however. If it is frustrating you that price has moved sideways for a few days, just understand that we are sitting at the 1M pivot so the resistance shouldn't be a surprise. Will price continue higher into a blow off top? That remains my expectation at this time. If so, just how high can it go? We spent much of yesterday evening discussing technical possibilities in Discord.

The ~$8750-$9300/daily R5 pivot level is likely the safe bet, however zooming out to the 4H chart gives a possible wave count that takes price to ~$10,150-$10,350. Then of course there are other technical targets such as the H4 R4 pivot at $11,020, the top of the 2018 TR at $11,780, the H4 R5 pivot at $12,165, and 1M R1 pivot at $12,912. The corrective market fib levels are 61.8% at $9441.98, 50% at $11,394.14, 38.2% at $13,346.30, and 23.6% at $15,761.68. I would suggest that traders keep the monthly pivots and corrective market fib levels marked as significant areas of interest on their charts as price continues its move up through those levels, whenever it does finally happen.

The reality is that anyone who happens to get close to the top on this possible final move up will be more lucky than anything else, myself included, due to the parabolic advance and cyclical accumulation that took place. So locking in any profit along the way is a smart move. The more emotional, less experienced traders will likely attempt to ride it up as high as possible and then be unable to convince themselves to exit when price reverses. Do not be that person. With volatility back in town, there will be a plethora of opportunities for much less risky trades in this market. As a trader, your job is to limit your risk, so you can start looking for upcoming opportunities in other cryptocurrencies. We have posted numerous alt trading opportunities in Discord recently for traders to watch as Bitcoin finishes up, and you should be keeping track of alts as well. We continue to expect alts to make good moves when Bitcoin enters its pullback.

Currently, we see price finding resistance, and consolidating, at the 2018 TR EQ . It is possible that this consolidation is printing a pennant , but I wouldn't be surprised to see the reversal form here as well due to the 2018 TR EQ . We can see the parabolic advance noted on this daily chart but no large upper wick. Must it have this wick? No, but this is currently what I'm looking for to mark the blow off top and is why I believe we may still have some upside left in this movement. That being said, I'm also watching the current TR on the 1H and 4H TFs for signs of excessive weakness, in which case I would likely exit my position in anticipation of the reversal. Ultimately, price falling through the purple arc would be the signal that the parabolic movement is over. The noted demand zones in blue and grey are the support levels, as well as the TR at the pivot . Stoch RSI is crossing bullishly but we have a lot of hours left in this daily candle to change that.

Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.

Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Comment: Here's an old 4H chart I have that shows price consolidating at the monthly pivot, between two ascending channels. Stoch RSI is oversold and RSI remains bullish at 62. This could create upward momentum, so traders should continue watching the 4H TF.

Comment: The local TR shows lower highs pushing price toward the resistance at the top of the TR. A break higher should at least see price targeting the ~$8900 level.
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Thanks WTC for this analysis. I have made a similar piece of work on who those parabolas behave on bull market conditions. I think you'll find it interesting.

Great analysis as usual! THANK YOU.
It will back flip in time if the parabolic continuation keeps going on,
+1 Reply
@TexasWestCapital - From the low in December 2018 to the present your insights on this market of been virtually spot on. Very much appreciate your explanations and insights. And, your wisdom about taking profits is worth listening to as well. Thanks again!
+1 Reply
Which indicators are stating otherwise than the obvious incoming downwards correction?
Hey Texas, been following you for a while, but don't usually spam much on other people's ideas. I really appreciate your posts. Interestingly, your target aligns nicely with the top of the long term bullish channel. I think as long as the support holds (near $6800 now), we could be aiming for a test of the top of that channel at least.

-Victor Cobra
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