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BITCOIN is testing the 1D MA100 after 8 straight green days!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
It was symmetry off the Triple Bottom after all that moved Bitcoin , a pattern I posted 1 week ago as seen below:


There are two important developments now: (a) The price is testing the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time May 12 and (b) It closed yesterday eight (8) straight green daily candles, which is the first time it is doing so since December 19, 2020!

So the points to keep and which I will examine a little further today are the Triple Bottom, the 1D MA100 and the 8 straight green candles sequence.


** The 1D MA100 **
The last time BTC tested the 1D MA100 as a Resistance following a major fall was on April 29, 2020. The test was successful and the trend-line broke, which turned the price action sideways for three months before the next High. The only major trend-line that seems to be connecting that period with today is the bold black line which started as a Support (green arrows) but turned into a Resistance (red arrows) after June 21, 2021.

It may be of key significance that along with the 1D MA100 test, Bitcoin is also testing that trend-line at the same time. If they both break, we may see the 1D MA100 turning into a Support for the new Parabolic Rally in similar fashion with the post April break-out.


** Eight straight green days **
As mentioned above, last time BTCUSD posted 8 straight bullish days was from Dec 12 to 19, 2020. As you see on the chart below, the rise on most recent 8 days structure is similar to December's. Bitcoin then made a huge price jump to almost its 3.0 Fibonacci extension . Repeating that will make the price almost touch $78000 which even though it is not out of reach on the long-term, it may be unrealistic to expect it on such a short period of time.



** The Triple Bottom **
What is more realistic though is what the last Triple Bottom sequence shows us. As seen on the chart below, the last Triple Bottom pattern was in June/ July 2020 and once completed the price jump was identical (around 40%) to the most recent one. What followed once that High was formed was an 80 day consolidation. Repeating that pattern would mean that Bitcoin will start a new Parabolic Rise somewhere in mid-October. Notice how even the RSI structures are fairly similar.



Do you expect BTC to follow any of those two scenarios or a completely different one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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Comments

Thank you for your very thoughtful analysis!
+2 Reply
Nice and practical comparison! The sort of idea I have come to love from your analysis. Thank you for sharing!
+2 Reply
nice find!
+1 Reply
Nice chart breakdown, thanks for sharing your idea!
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Nice post!
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Wow, great analysis bro. Love it
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good analysis. thanks
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Very good!
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Thanks for your nice idea. Bitcoin still into uptrend area.
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Hey TS... nice analysis! Given the previous two post-halving ATH occurred app. 12-18 months after the halving, in that model we're definitely still in for the possibility of a larger upwards surge sometime before year end. If that occurs, we should be aware that the previous two ATH occurring post-halving then led to 80-85% corrections. I'm waiting to see if we get a higher ATH before this year is out. If we do, I think I'm going to sell half my BTC, possibly other coins and tokens too if they rise along with BTC, and then wait to buy them back. That way, if I'm wrong and it just keeps heading higher this cycle I'll still be in for the ride!
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