MarcPMarkets

Bitcoin Establishing Wave 4 Bottom?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Many will be calling for lower prices, calling for shorts and projecting outrageous numbers like Bitcoin going to 15K! Please do not be fooled, Bitcoin is NOT in a bearish trend on the broader time frames. Trend is relevant to time frame and those who follow less than a daily time frame will call for a bearish trend . Larger time frames carry more weight and the time frame that we evaluate for our swing trade strategy is still bullish .

Let me explain:

The current price formation is a triangle or consolidation. These type of range bound situations are littered with fake outs and false starts, but the reality is a push to 27.5K is still within reason to be considered a correction of the broader trend from the 14K break to 42K high. Would you called that bearish? I hope not.

32.5K was the range support and it has been cleared, but it is not the trend support. All this means is price is likely in a minor Wave 4 of the broader 3 and needs to establish its low. Once Wave 4 bottoms, the next leg higher is likely to begin.

IF 27.5 K is taken out, then price may be in a broad Wave 4 consolidation. If this is the case, it can be range bound for months or longer and will provide some extreme opportunities for attractive investments along the way.

Our trade update:

We took a swing trade long from 37,550 and it was stopped out in this move. We also shared another buy signal in the 36's which was stopped out in the 33K area. Nothing to worry about because we manage risk effectively, and only put 1% at risk for these swing trades. Once a new buy signal appears, we will share another long idea.

Having RULES that guide perspective and decisions is KEY. The rules minimize emotional trades, reactive behavior and lots of errors. The idea is to remove as much "thinking" as possible from the idea and let the MARKET do all the work. When it comes to swing trades, there are times when the rules lead to missing a move but that is not a problem. There have been plenty of moves since the rally from 10K and there will be plenty more.

If you are taking more than 2 or 3 trades in Bitcoin per week, you are most likely not swing trading because that many HIGH quality opportunities are not that frequent on this time frame. Your account history will quickly remind you of this notion.

So in summary, we are still bullish and waiting for our next buy setup at a predetermined support. A new buy signal is likely to develop somewhere between 30K and 27.5K and we will be prepared to take it. If not, then we adjust. I do not get married to opinions, instead I let the market provide new information and I simply adjust to it.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective, I hope you found it helpful.
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Comments

You have already seen the lows.. There was FUD about double spending BTC and one of the large miners who ended up the loser thought they had found a bug and dumped a large number of coins in the market causing a cascading effect in a very short period of time. Seems it was fake news and that miners which dumped BTC as fast as they could seeing how it could go very low like all such bugs.. A large number of coins were sold around 30k so we might see profit taking by some but I dont think we will see another drop such as that. Also look at alts.. Since they did not have miners dumping and no bugs the sellers are actually trying to buy back their coins..
+6 Reply
d4nt0s alienteck
@alienteck, What will be your next excuse when we see a lower low?
+3 Reply
BTCGuy87 d4nt0s
@d4nt0s, no excuse necessary. We're already stabilizing in the $33k range.
+4 Reply
magulya BTCGuy87
@BTCGuy87, already???????? what r u smoking?)))) we r at 31.600 to start with)))))
Reply
BTCGuy87 magulya
@magulya, lol. A day later you comment? Arguing over BTC short term volatility when it’s goes slightly in the direction you want is like saying “someday it’ll rain” - of course it moves up and down but grayscale alone bought 12k BTC in the last two days, meanwhile only 1800 were mined...AND THATS ONLY GRAYSCALE. If you think this general zone isn’t support, good luck losing all your money.
+3 Reply
d4nt0s BTCGuy87
@BTCGuy87, We shall see in a couple of days :)
Reply
snipdapipz alienteck
@alienteck, news comes out after the market moves! The market is itself the best indicator.
+5 Reply
@alienteck, only the clueless correlate every bit of price action with news. funny thing is I have had the same pivots and levels plotted on my chart based on algos since the 1st of the month! and price reacts to them. respects them. and trading for me goes on as usual because I don't need to news to plot a trade. exhibit A... this moring. perfect 1.5k points scalp to a line that was already coming sir. I did not know any news. I just do what I do everything. You gotta rise up son. escape that herd mentality haha
+1 Reply
alienteck Gunslinger2005
and you still find time to post here..
Reply
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