MarcPMarkets

ATH For ETH Nothing To Be Excited About. Here's Why:

COINBASE:ETHUSD   Ethereum / U.S. Dollar
With the hype machine in full force, it is important to put levels and RISK into perspective. In this brief analysis, I want to provide some perspective to those who are in this alt with varying expectations based on time horizon. Earlier today we trimmed out of more BTC , ETH and LTC from our long term portfolio.

While the current location is highly celebrated, it is highly vulnerable to selling which may have begun based on the current candle at the moment. The blue box on the chart is a reversal zone boundary and is an area where false break outs and fake outs are highly likely.

The next historical support at the moment is in the 880 to 890 area. Can price find support sooner? Sure but it has to prove it. Whole numbers like 1000 tend to have a psychological effect, but we do not count on that until evidence appears.

Day traders: If you are long, a tight stop is a good idea. Trying to make 100 pts, while risking 4 or 500 is not a profitable strategy.

Swing traders: if you entered this alt recently, your risk should be defined by the support around the 890 area. If price goes there, you have to be able to handle that kind of risk. If the thought of that has you losing sleep, you are likely too large and should reduce risk by taking a smaller loss or tightening stops ,etc. There is no guarantee it will reach the 890s, but that is where the retrace risk is at the moment.

Investors: Current levels are a great place to reduce risk by locking in profits if you own this from much lower prices. That doesn't mean to sell the entire position, but locking in some profits at highs is an effective behavior. If there is a significant retrace, you can buy that portion back, and if it continues higher like all the hype suggests, well you are still in. Trying to unload at the precise top is gambling.

When people are coming out and calling for outrageous price targets like 5K, that is often the sign of a near term peak. When things look there best, that is often the worst time to assume risk. Those who bought way before you are unloading on guess who?

I am not bearish on BTC , ETH or LTC over the long term, but I am keenly aware of short term risk and that is what I aim to point out here.

Thank you for considering my perspective, I hope you found it helpful.
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Comments

Good analysis Sir. What you think of BTC. It seems like it is going to revisit. $27.2K level.

I would like to say thaty I'm huge fan of your analysis and how you put your thoughts in every post.
+13 Reply
It’s not really a risk if it’s bullish long term... I’d call it more of a lost opportunity if you choose not to take profits and then buy back lower. But people who would rather not bother, and are long term investors, won’t care
+9 Reply
gohanisrice Tyler6988
@Tyler6988, Some of us LT investors, at least here in the US, have ST and LT tax implications to consider as well. Personally its a gamble to pay 30%+ tax on ST cap gains from ETH I purchased between $400 and $700 last year and try and time the bottom to buy a few more back and reset the cap gains tax calendar. I'd rather just buy the dips but of course that only applies if you have dry powder.
+3 Reply
Crypapi Tyler6988
@Tyler6988, lets see if you wont care =D
Reply
If your are a long term investor I don't know why selling to try to buy lower would be a good move.
Someone who understand eth value and potential would not sell before new all time high in a crypto bull market.
Way more risky then just holding imo.
+6 Reply
karl_jr hhethik
@hhethik, You are right. Unfortunately some people don't get it. If you try to apply the trading discipline from other markets, like forex for example, you are bound to lose. This space has different dynamics. The regular TA doesn't work here.

The biggest cringe is when they say "oh BTC is over valued now". With regards to what exactly?

I think selling when it's "high" in hopes to buy from lower is a bigger risk for many of us. Because when it jumps, it jumps much higher and you miss the train
+2 Reply
hhethik karl_jr
@karl_jr, Yes exactly, many technical traders come in crypto without the understanding of bull market and upward potential.
Or they just don't really believe in crypto and come only for speculations.
Some may say we are blinded by our belief in crypto, but I think the truth is they are missing a big piece of the puzzle so they can't make the right calls.
Reply
kenbol hhethik
@hhethik example warren Buffett does not trade like that . I understand this coding has flaws and isn’t a successful blockchain as it seems like Satoshi s coding that is a base 58 in bitcoin .ethereum ditches that coding and is a giant mess . Nobody remember the Dow hack on ethereum ? The ethereum founder (Vitalik ) controls that entire ledger just like government and banks with the dollar bailout . Do you trust that as a long investor? Dangerous ....
Reply
hhethik kenbol
@kenbol, Vitalik does not control the ledger. He has a lot of influence on Ethereum path and development as the creator, but if he wants to do something that does not make sense the community will not allow it, it is a decentralized network. DOA was one of the first big application using smart contracts and it had flaws and bugs, not ethereum. It's like saying if your bank got hack and money was stolen then money is not safe. Since then, more then 150 projects thrived on ethereum infrastructure. If that's really your big concerns about eth, you should buy some! ;)
+2 Reply
this looks like beginning of bull market similar to 2017
+4 Reply
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