BTC selling temporarily slowing down, targets for upside
The price formed a falling wedge (bullish reversal pattern), and a bullish divergence on the RSI. All of this on a 4h chart, which is a relatively safer timeframe from the short-term price manipulations that we often see on the 15-30 min charts, even the hourly chart lately.
The volume does not exactly fit a falling wedge though (it should be reducing towards the end of the wedge, not increasing), which is why I don't like this one as much as I usually like falling wedges (you've seen their performance from my past charts, the results in calling at least a temporary reversal and a move to the upside were very good).
If the price manages to break out of the wedge, then the targets are:
1. 8633
2. 8800
3. 8974
The price may reverse at any of the targets, so be smart and don't be greedy, always lock in part of the profits.
If the falling wedge support manages to break down, then we will likely see bigger selling momentum, and the bearish targets would be in the 7770-7860 area.
It's also possible (though not likely) that the price just keeps slowly grinding down to 7800-7900, on low volume, without even breaking the support of the falling wedge, and THEN making a good bounce to the upside. That is why if you're a more conservative trader, wait for the confirmation (price breaking the resistance of the wedge).
The volume does not exactly fit a falling wedge though (it should be reducing towards the end of the wedge, not increasing), which is why I don't like this one as much as I usually like falling wedges (you've seen their performance from my past charts, the results in calling at least a temporary reversal and a move to the upside were very good).
If the price manages to break out of the wedge, then the targets are:
1. 8633
2. 8800
3. 8974
The price may reverse at any of the targets, so be smart and don't be greedy, always lock in part of the profits.
If the falling wedge support manages to break down, then we will likely see bigger selling momentum, and the bearish targets would be in the 7770-7860 area.
It's also possible (though not likely) that the price just keeps slowly grinding down to 7800-7900, on low volume, without even breaking the support of the falling wedge, and THEN making a good bounce to the upside. That is why if you're a more conservative trader, wait for the confirmation (price breaking the resistance of the wedge).
Comment:
Bounced from the support of the wedge. Let's see if it still holds, or if it will turn back again. 8200 and 8300 are the short-term resistances.
Comment:
A bullish falling wedge now formed on the lower timeframe (1h chart) as well. This one is now inside the bigger wedge that you see on the main chart above.
The first target of this smaller wedge is 8356.
The first target of this smaller wedge is 8356.
Comment:
We have a breakout of the smaller wedge I posted above.
The hourly candle must close above the resistance, and hopefully some more volume should follow to confirm. Looks good so far.
The hourly candle must close above the resistance, and hopefully some more volume should follow to confirm. Looks good so far.
Comment:
A pullback to around 8150-8170 area would be perfectly normal (and even expected).
It would mean retesting the breakout level and confirming it as a support.
It would mean retesting the breakout level and confirming it as a support.
Comment:
It doesn't HAVE to happen of course. But if you missed the entry on the breakout of this wedge, those are the levels I'd watch for a relatively safer buy entry with first target at 8330-8350 zone.
Comment:
First target (8356) of the smaller wedge has been reached. Also, before reaching the target, there was a pullback, as expected, from 8260 to 8150-8170 zone (the price touched 8143), and as I mentioned in my previous update, that was your chance to re-enter a safer buy position if you missed the original entry on the breakout. It played out perfectly.
Now the price is on the resistance line of the bigger wedge (the one on the main chart above), and it is hesitating, when in should be breaking u higher on volume. So far, not the best sign for a continued move up. It's possible that the price gets rejected here and turns down again to either retest lower supports once more, or even break them.
In order for that NOT to happen, we need to see some buying volume here in the 8200-8300 area, and an accelerated push upwards towards the next targets written above.
Now the price is on the resistance line of the bigger wedge (the one on the main chart above), and it is hesitating, when in should be breaking u higher on volume. So far, not the best sign for a continued move up. It's possible that the price gets rejected here and turns down again to either retest lower supports once more, or even break them.
In order for that NOT to happen, we need to see some buying volume here in the 8200-8300 area, and an accelerated push upwards towards the next targets written above.
Comment:
We've got a beautiful breakout.
Next target already getting close.
Next target already getting close.
Comment:
8400-8440 area will likely be tested as a new support next. Then after some consolidation, likely another wave up towards our targets.
Comment:
The price retraced to 8468, slightly above than expected. That pullback was admittedly too shallow and most likely not enough to count as the retest of the new support. I'd expect another pullback down to 8400-8450 still, but the price seems to be forming a bullish pennant here.
Bullish pennants are usually forming after a breakout, when the price is consolidating on low volume, and (if broken up) the price makes another large push to the upside without any retracement.
Let's see if this is one of those scenarios, or we get a normal healthy pullback first (which I'd prefer, since that would mean stronger support forming and could lead to higher prices, otherwise, the rally might become unsustainable and break down without reaching all the targets).
Bullish pennants are usually forming after a breakout, when the price is consolidating on low volume, and (if broken up) the price makes another large push to the upside without any retracement.
Let's see if this is one of those scenarios, or we get a normal healthy pullback first (which I'd prefer, since that would mean stronger support forming and could lead to higher prices, otherwise, the rally might become unsustainable and break down without reaching all the targets).
Comment:
Broke out of the pennant. However, I don't see any real followup to this breakout. Makes it less reliable and a possible bulltrap and/or simpy won't reach its maximum projected target. The volume could still catch up and push it. Hard to say. Let's just say it's not an ideal breakout. The key level now is 8600 and how the price reacts there.
Comment:
Another thing to keep in mind is this uptrend channel the price is currently moving in. It might be topping here and preparing for a pullback (if this channel still holds as it did so far).
Comment:
It did top there. And we are getting the expected pullback. 8400-8440 is the level to watch. Might possibly dip a bit more down to 8380 due to price pushing higher (works as a spring, the more you push it, the harder it pulls back).
Comment:
One very important thing. Since we can't know yet if this will be just a pullback with a continued move up to 8700s afterwards, or an actual reversal to bearish trend with targets at 8000-7800, pay attention to the price action at the support level I mentioned (8400-8440).
A spike down to 8380 is also fine. But if the price goes below 8380 and stays (closes) below that level, then the bullish momentum is in question and that might be a sign of an actual reversal back to bearish trend. That is why it's important not to set the buy orders blindly here. First wait for the price to touch those levels, see how it behaves there, and then if we see bullish signs, buying will be a safe option. Otherwise, stay away from the buy button.
A spike down to 8380 is also fine. But if the price goes below 8380 and stays (closes) below that level, then the bullish momentum is in question and that might be a sign of an actual reversal back to bearish trend. That is why it's important not to set the buy orders blindly here. First wait for the price to touch those levels, see how it behaves there, and then if we see bullish signs, buying will be a safe option. Otherwise, stay away from the buy button.
Comment:
First target (8633) of the main chart reached with laser-sharp precision. The pullback before that reached the expected target as well.
As mentioned above, I expected the price to pull back down to 8400-8440 area. The price reached 8434, which gave a nice buy re-entry with a TP target at 8633 (if you were not already in since the lower levels). There is something very satisfying when a wick fills your buy order, and then another wick hits your take-profit target. :)
This played out perfectly. Again.
As mentioned above, I expected the price to pull back down to 8400-8440 area. The price reached 8434, which gave a nice buy re-entry with a TP target at 8633 (if you were not already in since the lower levels). There is something very satisfying when a wick fills your buy order, and then another wick hits your take-profit target. :)
This played out perfectly. Again.
Comment:
This channel is still very much in play. Keep an eye on it. If it breaks, then we might see a faster drop to the lower supports. Otherwise, as long as the price stays inside, it has higher chances of pushing higher after it touches the lower line of the channel.
Comment:
8363 is the lower boundary of the channel. It has to hold for this momentum to keep going up. Otherwise, it becomes uncertain.
Comment:
The channel is still holding. This hourly candle seems to be closing like this, which is a good sign. But we need to see the price going (and staying) above 8440 to count this is a bounce. Otherwise, it might pause here a bit, and then break the support later.
Comment:
Broke the channel and the support zone. Not good. New resistance is now 8410-8450 area. It could try to retest towards that level once again, but will probably fail, since this was quite a clear sign of weakness now.
Next support zone is at 8280-8230. IF the price breaks that one too and closes below 8200-8180, then we're most likely seeing a bearish reversal and a continuation down to lower prices (7800-7900 to start)
Above that zone, bullish scenario is still in play (although significantly weakened).
Next support zone is at 8280-8230. IF the price breaks that one too and closes below 8200-8180, then we're most likely seeing a bearish reversal and a continuation down to lower prices (7800-7900 to start)
Above that zone, bullish scenario is still in play (although significantly weakened).
Comment:
Touched 8440 resistance. It has to break through that area, then through 8510 in order to really show that it's ready for the next wave up to 8700. Otherwise, it could turn around and dive back down.
Comment:
Thw wick in the above chart simply confirmed 8440 as a new resistance and dived back down.
The price is now in the support area of "last hope" for bullish momentum to have any chance of survival. It is finding some support here as expected (8230 line mentioned previously), however it looks extremely weak.
New resistance now is 8280-8320 area.
If the price closes below 8170, it will be a trigger for short down to 8050 first, then 7800-7900 area most likely (to begin with).
The price is now in the support area of "last hope" for bullish momentum to have any chance of survival. It is finding some support here as expected (8230 line mentioned previously), however it looks extremely weak.
New resistance now is 8280-8320 area.
If the price closes below 8170, it will be a trigger for short down to 8050 first, then 7800-7900 area most likely (to begin with).
Comment:
This downtrend channel is becoming wedgy near the end here. There's also a small bullish divergence forming on RSI. Might see a small bounce soon from these levels, but the short-term resistances stay the same as I wrote above.
Comment:
That wick that hit our first target in the main chart was the actual top of this entire move. The price did not manage to bounce from the support zone at all, and instead broke it down after pausing there a bit. As I wrote above, if the price closes below 8170, it was a signal for short selling, first to 8050, then 7800-7900 area. Now we are in this area, and the more precise support lines here are:
1. 7826 (which the price is getting ready to test)
2. 7720-7600 area, which is the beginning of a broader and stronger support zone on higher timeframes as well.
Watch for clues in these areas since we may see a bounce from there. Though the selling momentum is very strong and there are absolutely no signs of any slowing down at this moment.
1. 7826 (which the price is getting ready to test)
2. 7720-7600 area, which is the beginning of a broader and stronger support zone on higher timeframes as well.
Watch for clues in these areas since we may see a bounce from there. Though the selling momentum is very strong and there are absolutely no signs of any slowing down at this moment.
Comment:
If you click "play" on the main chart above, you'll see the price is at an extremely important trendline support from which the it bounced multiple times in the last few months. Plus, it's is inside a crucial support zone (where the spikes formed).
The price tried to bounce from this line, but it is now retesting it again. It is a lower volume retest, so that is positive, but most likely this support is going to break, either on this retest, or after a bounce and a correction upwards towards 7750-7900 zone, with a possible (but less likely) test of 8000 level.
The price tried to bounce from this line, but it is now retesting it again. It is a lower volume retest, so that is positive, but most likely this support is going to break, either on this retest, or after a bounce and a correction upwards towards 7750-7900 zone, with a possible (but less likely) test of 8000 level.
Comment:
Looks like the price is trying to break out of the symmterical triangle here after quite a boring consolidation period. So far the attempt has failed with no followup or volume, but there's still a chance, as long as the price stays above 7400 (ideally though, it should not close below 7480, or else it loses steam)
IF we get a real breakout that can actually stay above the resistance and not come back inside the triangle again like it did now, then...
The projected targets of the triangle would be:
1. 7775
2. 7819
3. 7919 (maximum projected target, very often in downtrends like this the price fails to reach maximum bullish targets)
If the price breaks the triangle to the downside (close below 7250), first targets are 7031 and 6954.
I'm not posting a new separate chart, since these are still small moves here, so I will post them as updates to this chart. Once I see a setup for a broader move/reversal, I'll post a new analysis. So far, we are moving in a strong downtrend (as long as the price is below 8150), and all these smaller moves upwards are just small corrections, and they are less likely to reach their maximum targets.
These are all just short-term, counter-trend and risky trades. Keep that in mind.
IF we get a real breakout that can actually stay above the resistance and not come back inside the triangle again like it did now, then...
The projected targets of the triangle would be:
1. 7775
2. 7819
3. 7919 (maximum projected target, very often in downtrends like this the price fails to reach maximum bullish targets)
If the price breaks the triangle to the downside (close below 7250), first targets are 7031 and 6954.
I'm not posting a new separate chart, since these are still small moves here, so I will post them as updates to this chart. Once I see a setup for a broader move/reversal, I'll post a new analysis. So far, we are moving in a strong downtrend (as long as the price is below 8150), and all these smaller moves upwards are just small corrections, and they are less likely to reach their maximum targets.
These are all just short-term, counter-trend and risky trades. Keep that in mind.
Comment:
Two failed attempts. Showing major weakness so far. The price closed below 8400, so the chart in the comment above is invalidated, it did not manage to close above the resistance, and got rejected strongly in the end.
7250 is still not broken, but the odds of it breaking have just increased by a lot after this move.
The targets after (and if) it breaks are written in the comment above.
7250 is still not broken, but the odds of it breaking have just increased by a lot after this move.
The targets after (and if) it breaks are written in the comment above.
Comment:
Current price action looks like a possible short squeeze might be incoming. Depending on how strong the squeeze is, it can go to 7720-7800.
7250 still not broken (the price did not close below that level, although it spiked below it).
The major trend is still down, so any short squeeze rallies can be good opportunities to open short positions at safe entries (7800-8000 is a fairly safe entry for a short).
A break of 7250 will signal further drop before any upside still.
7250 still not broken (the price did not close below that level, although it spiked below it).
The major trend is still down, so any short squeeze rallies can be good opportunities to open short positions at safe entries (7800-8000 is a fairly safe entry for a short).
A break of 7250 will signal further drop before any upside still.
Comment:
There is a strong bullish divergence on most timeframes now. If you're in a short position, be very very careful, because if it pushes upwards, it's going to be fast.
Comment:
It's breaking down of the (bullish) falling wedge, but this could all be just a wick (and a perfect trap for shorts), if it manages to push upwards from here. Otherwise, if this 4h candle closes below the wedge, the drop will continue to at least 6960-6900. So it has a little more than an hour of time to prove itself.
Dangerous zone for both sides of the trade, no doubt. But if I HAD to open a position, I'd prefer it not be short selling here.
(also note the divergence on RSI)
Dangerous zone for both sides of the trade, no doubt. But if I HAD to open a position, I'd prefer it not be short selling here.
(also note the divergence on RSI)
Comment:
The bullish divergence and slowing down of sellers played out. Unfortunately, today I was out, and couldn't update this on time, but hopefully you caught the wedge breakout.
If not, there's still some space left to go to the upside. We will liekly see a pullback down to 7400-7350 levels (even 7280-7300 area is possible), before continuing the corrective way up to around 7770 as a first target.
If not, there's still some space left to go to the upside. We will liekly see a pullback down to 7400-7350 levels (even 7280-7300 area is possible), before continuing the corrective way up to around 7770 as a first target.
