BTC/USD
BTC has astonishingly been ranging between 6800 and 5750 area for the past 33 days. This marks the longest
trading range we have had since 20k highs.
This analysis is for the near term and not a trend reversal prediction. Please do your own research before taking a trade.
Having said that we have a couple of things to note and start this analysis:
1)6800 Rejection
2)6200-6300 Supply area
3)Next Bottom
1. With several rejections at 6800-6900 range we affirmed a very strong resistance here. People that went long
on the spike traps most probably got liquidated or still holding position adding margin. People who bought at this range
are now stuck under the water with a sell order to break even. This further solidifies the resistance once we approach it again
2. This Supply area has been very crucial while BTC has traded in this range. You can see marked by yellow boxes, 1st time used as support,
2nd time we broke it and used it as resistance. You get the gist. The point here is we have just broken down again and if history has a say
this will be marked as resistance OR a short opportunity for bears. We can see on the current price action heave bearish candles every time
bulls try to resurface the price above. This is a mistake from the bulls but a happy treat for the bears as they add to their positions for the next leg down.
3. Next bottom can be 1 of two. Above 5950 where eager bulls are waiting to outbid the support buyers. or below in the support area incase the bears manage to keep pushing down.
Either or if you are waiting to buy or long these are the two levels you should keep an eye on. Trade with safe risk management practices as there are no promises these levels hold and that we do not see lower 5k levels.
Conclusion:
Bears still have the upper hand and each time bulls try they end up with a slap in the face. The trend is clear for the short term and has not yet been broken so there is no point
to assume or trade otherwise. The trend is your friend. Probability of going down is much higher.
BTC has astonishingly been ranging between 6800 and 5750 area for the past 33 days. This marks the longest
trading range we have had since 20k highs.
This analysis is for the near term and not a trend reversal prediction. Please do your own research before taking a trade.
Having said that we have a couple of things to note and start this analysis:
1)6800 Rejection
2)6200-6300 Supply area
3)Next Bottom
1. With several rejections at 6800-6900 range we affirmed a very strong resistance here. People that went long
on the spike traps most probably got liquidated or still holding position adding margin. People who bought at this range
are now stuck under the water with a sell order to break even. This further solidifies the resistance once we approach it again
2. This Supply area has been very crucial while BTC has traded in this range. You can see marked by yellow boxes, 1st time used as support,
2nd time we broke it and used it as resistance. You get the gist. The point here is we have just broken down again and if history has a say
this will be marked as resistance OR a short opportunity for bears. We can see on the current price action heave bearish candles every time
bulls try to resurface the price above. This is a mistake from the bulls but a happy treat for the bears as they add to their positions for the next leg down.
3. Next bottom can be 1 of two. Above 5950 where eager bulls are waiting to outbid the support buyers. or below in the support area incase the bears manage to keep pushing down.
Either or if you are waiting to buy or long these are the two levels you should keep an eye on. Trade with safe risk management practices as there are no promises these levels hold and that we do not see lower 5k levels.
Conclusion:
Bears still have the upper hand and each time bulls try they end up with a slap in the face. The trend is clear for the short term and has not yet been broken so there is no point
to assume or trade otherwise. The trend is your friend. Probability of going down is much higher.
However we can clearly see bearish divergences starting to appear on 1hr rsi and we formed a rising wedge (Continuation pattern) Bear scenario is still more probable.
Both short's and longs have bad R:R here until we reach 6800 for shorts and 6000 for longs which gives better trading opportunities.
Excuse the no chart update. I have yet to figure out how i can attach a chart with an update to an idea. If anyone knows how to please feel free to share :).
Happy trading.