This chart is amended from an original published by Peter Brandt.
There's an element of conscious retro-fitting here. But not so much, in my view, to make the chart invalid.
1) I don't believe the "Covid crash" was a chart anomaly. So I included that low in the last arc.
2) I added trendlines between cycle lows and cycle highs. Measuring the angle of these trendlines give 51 degrees for 2011-13, and 34 degrees for 2015-17. The percentage change between these values is -33.3%. Extrapolating the same to a trendline to cover December 2018 to the present gives an angle of around 23 degrees.
3) Interestingly, this angle of trendline intersects with the amended last arc at around 87k by year's end. This accords with the macro Fibonacci 4.236 extension if measured from the September 2018 retracement rally before capitulation, which I've used on previous charts to project the top of the current cycle.
4) Amending the top trendline that Brandt had included on his chart to intersect with this nexus gives an interesting picture of the ATH's hit between February and April.
5) Amending the arc also gives room for what I currently see occurring soon, in terms of a deeper reach down to the 20.4 to 18k area, as BTC completes Wave C of its ABC correction.
6) If this low comes in, and despite the extreme fear it would probably elicit, I do expect BTC to resume its bull run and reach 80k+ by the end of the year.
7) If accurate as a projection, such a drop would represent an exceptional buying opportunity. However, I think it is probable that after the year's end ATH, BTC does enter into a multi-year bear market with a possible base around the 27k mark.
8) The 500k level is not unthinkable for the next bull run peak, based on this chart, in particular noting how the 2017 peak penetrated the top trendline.
Feel free to comment.
The original chart by @PeterLBrandt is here:
There's an element of conscious retro-fitting here. But not so much, in my view, to make the chart invalid.
1) I don't believe the "Covid crash" was a chart anomaly. So I included that low in the last arc.
2) I added trendlines between cycle lows and cycle highs. Measuring the angle of these trendlines give 51 degrees for 2011-13, and 34 degrees for 2015-17. The percentage change between these values is -33.3%. Extrapolating the same to a trendline to cover December 2018 to the present gives an angle of around 23 degrees.
3) Interestingly, this angle of trendline intersects with the amended last arc at around 87k by year's end. This accords with the macro Fibonacci 4.236 extension if measured from the September 2018 retracement rally before capitulation, which I've used on previous charts to project the top of the current cycle.
4) Amending the top trendline that Brandt had included on his chart to intersect with this nexus gives an interesting picture of the ATH's hit between February and April.
5) Amending the arc also gives room for what I currently see occurring soon, in terms of a deeper reach down to the 20.4 to 18k area, as BTC completes Wave C of its ABC correction.
6) If this low comes in, and despite the extreme fear it would probably elicit, I do expect BTC to resume its bull run and reach 80k+ by the end of the year.
7) If accurate as a projection, such a drop would represent an exceptional buying opportunity. However, I think it is probable that after the year's end ATH, BTC does enter into a multi-year bear market with a possible base around the 27k mark.
8) The 500k level is not unthinkable for the next bull run peak, based on this chart, in particular noting how the 2017 peak penetrated the top trendline.
Feel free to comment.
The original chart by @PeterLBrandt is here:
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