My trade from my previous post is still active and I'm still waiting for a retracement to our $2630/ 40 bottom target.
Bitcoin has now broken support of the large which has been holding since our annual low in mid December. On the lower time frames we also have another in play and price is sitting right at our 1D SMA50 resistance (SMA300 on 4H) which is holding strong.
This SMA50 resistance along with declining and 2 , indicates that the most likely path is to the downside, which will invalidate that which everyone has been waiting for. Price action is also looking on the daily and weekly charts.
My initial target for the larger is about the height of the which works out to at least a 29.2% drop from the support. Also, if you look at our drop from $5658 to our channel support $3473, you will see that we had a 38.2 fib retracement on the following wave up to channel resistance which gives us a 138.2 target of $2640, which also coincides with a 138.2 fib extension ($2630) from the height of the larger on the next wave down from $4409.
Looking at our 1D SMA200 (4H SMA1200) resistance, it looks like this might potentially be a large with resistance from the swing high on 15 October, and which had a retest of its support on 15 December after an initial test on 7 December. If this is the case, then I suspect we will potentially find the $2630/ 40 support sometime at the end of Jan in the form of a v-shaped swing low, or in the first week of Feb before potentially attempting another test of the 1D SMA50 again.
Good luck and happy trading!