The Trap EP2, The first is The last

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Disclaimer : As a chartist I don't have any intention to manipulate the prices, all our work is completely based on our research and analysis, we request you to please read the complete report before making any type of comments. the only thing that matters for a trader is to make profit and protect his capital. Markets does not understand bullish or bearish situations, they are just a reflection of human emotions, and my work is to capture the future direction without a crystal ball, so i could be wrong, so it's better that you should invest on your own risk. Thankyou.

Hell-looo... guys welcome to a brand new update of Bitcoin The Trap Ep2 the first is the last, connecting dots with Gold , Stocks and Geopolitics. Now before getting in to this I really need to thank all of you for huge support on my first update of The Trap, and The Same Old Pattern series, really i’ve got so much support from all of you even after things don’t work out in my previous update. In just a fraction of time this community has grown like Bitcoin’s prices in the past few weeks;)
Plus you all guys are unique with a very productive view towards my chart analysis, so cheers to all of you.

Meanwhile my way of writing isn't satirical at all, but I'll keep adding more spices with boring trading lessons, so you guys won’t sleep while reading this report…
Gosh am really missing funny stickers here, hey TV are you listening?...

So without wasting your time, let’s jump into this…

First of all if you’re not familiar with my “The Trap” series or looking first time my report, than I'll recommend you to first check out my previous update on Bitcoin here it is…
And do also check my “Same Old Pattern” series, link below or checkout my profile

Now lots of you think that I've been bearish on Bitcoin , which is not completely correct, i've also mentioned the bullish scenario as well, although there was a high probability for the bearish move at that time, but things changed really fast.

If you’ll focus on some major levels i've mentioned like 10800, 11200 and 11800, so you'll clearly find that, how strongly bears have protected this levels, have a look at this chart below...
I’ve said that above 10800 bears will start to loose control and above 11800 bulls will totally crush bears, so if you’ve followed this advice and made profits by getting long from 11200 than congratulations to you, am not taking any type of credits for that.

Now another important point I've discussed is that above 11800 chance for a new high will definitely increases, and this thing looks damn bullish in daily or hourly chart, all the indicators are turned out to be bullish right now. So here’s what you all are waiting for the bullish scenario…
ABC flat corrective formation has ended perfectly and now a new wave is in progress and looks like we've already completed the 3rd wave and next corrective wave 4 could gain support from 11200, amazing… how perfect it is, isn’t it?

Have a look at this another chart, 21EMA is damn bullish , 50MA has crossed 200MA in 4h chart golden cross indicator, volume is rising, RSI is getting bullish momentum, what else you want from your life man?... everything is bullish , even a noob can easily predict the price direction, book your lambo, before it gets out of stock;)

Alright now am shifting here from technicals to fundamentals, to deeply understand this growth. We need to expand our vision from here and look at the geopolitics and how it's directly affecting Bitcoin .

We all know that there’s an ongoing trade war between the US and China, and on Aug1 US President Trump has announced to impose 10% extra tariff on 300 billion of chinese goods which directly affect the Chinese manufacturing Industry. In reaction to this PBOC (Public Bank of China) allowed Chinese Yuan to fall below 0.143$ which is the lowest level since 2009, this step will allow chinese goods to be cheaper and more competitive and also cuts the extra taxes. Against this step of China, president Trump accused China as a currency manipulator on twitter .

Now I won't go in depth to waste your time you can google everything you want to know. Things we need to consider here is that when Chinese Yuan started to drop , lots of chinese investors start to move their funds in safe assets like gold , silver and Bitcoin which caused a massive rally in commodities and huge crashes in stock markets. Now Chinese Yuan could be a very good indicator for Bitcoin and Gold price predictions. Coz when people will start to move from Yuan to Bitcoin or Gold , they’ll pump, and when people will start to move again from Bitcoin or Gold to Yuan, they'll dump, it's just that simple…
Have a look at Yuan chart…
By the technicals looks like Yuan is getting strength for a short rally in mid term, which suggests for a correction in Gold and Bitcoin , so maybe we could see an small correction upto 11k or maybe 10k level, the better we should be prepared for that.
Meanwhile Gold is looking stronger than Bitcoin but due for a small wave 4 correction, which could lead the prices upto 1460s level. But the allover trend for gold looks damn bullish and in coming days we could even see +1600 zone, new ATH since 2013, so cheers for Gold holders…:)

However this whole currency drama had a very negative impact on major markets like DOW, S&P500 or Nasdaq.
Have a look at the chart of major markets, i think i don’t need to say so much on this, all the markets have achieved their ATH and lots of analysts are predicting for the next major recession in 2019-20.
An important question arises here, that is this recession is good for Bitcoin? And there’s no fixed answer for that. Coz Bitcoin has not seen any major recession yet.
Lots of people are creating hype over this that during the major recession Bitcoin and Gold will keep rising, and what they argue here is that Bitcoin is anti fiat currency, which is limited like gold . So during the recession when fiat will fail, gold and Bitcoin will take its place. Which is definitely not the complete truth.

Here I want to clear this thing that am also a bitcoin supporter and I do have faith in blockchain, but my eyes are open and I can see what’s happening. There’s an image created against fiat and inflation and painted this with all the negativity and showed you that everything is scam, conspirated and evil, which is definitely only one side of the coin.
Inflated currencies are actually a good thing for capitalism which encourages people to invest in economy and generates value. If you’ll lock 1kg of gold bar for 10 years, it won’t grow upto 2kg, obviously it's value will grow with time, but that gold has not generated any value which is contributed in economy, but if you’ll invest 1kg gold worth of money in economy like in S&P500 than you’re contributing in economy to generate value, and you’ll definitely get some really good returns over that.
But just like any other system fiat also has its own limitations and flaws which are misused by banks and this can be solved with blockchain.

Alright now the question which is striking your head is, “alright husain but how the hell all this will affect Bitcoin???”, so the fact that Bitcoin will moon in the next recession has not any strong base, just opposite to this if you'll look at the correlation between stock markets and Bitcoin both have performed quite similar movements in the past.
Have a look at this charts...
Notice that prices of Bitcoin has almost equal reaction with Nasdaq and the reason is very simple, everyone has invested in Bitcoin to earn more dollars. That’s the real joke, we’ve invested in anti fiat currency to earn more fiat currency and labelling that fiat as scam, evil and conspirated. You know why, coz US Dollar is the legal agreement issued by FED, backed by Economy and protected by your elected government which generates more trust in it, and here I also want to add this that Trump Administration will do what’s best in favour of US Dollar and economy, so the drop in Yuan won’t last longer.
Meanwhile I don't deny the possibility for the next recession but most likely Bitcoin will also drop with stock markets, coz investors will short everything they get, and then they'll don't care about the tech, all they want is just exit from everything at any cost and secure what they already have.

Now turn view and look what’s happening, today the whole crypto industry is losing its value, coz it has stand for decentralisation and now the whole industry is getting centralised to only Bitcoin . Ask yourself what Bitcoin stands for, its decentralisation and now what's happening? We're moving towards the centralised power, one authority is controlling all the power and majority is supporting this and those who oppose or criticise this, majority attacks on them.

No one cares what is the potential of blockchain everyone just wants to push the prices of Bitcoin higher and higher and claims to fly towards the moon, but just look where we are right now we're already on the moon, Bitcoin has surged from 3200 to 14000 without any major correction whereas other altcoins have not recorded this intense growth, which clearly shows that people are not really interested in tech, they’re all greedy and just want to make quick money from Bitcoin .
Look how dominance of Bitcoin has just kept rising and passed 2017s ath , when we’ve reached the 20k level, if it goes above 80% than altcoin market will be completely dead, there’ll be no sense to invest in technology, this will be the only place for speculators and gamblers.

This is the eye opening moment to see what's actually happening, everything is bullish without any solid fundamentals, this complete hype is hollow from inside. If whole crypto market is mooning than why only bitcoins has got all the benefits?
Market cap of altcoins is still sinking and most likely this will continue to drop in the coming days.

Whereas if you’ll look at top Altcoin Ethereum , it has so respectfully followed the Same Old Pattern theory, and will keep it continue in coming days.

Moving towards the conclusion what I actually mean here is that most likely Bitcoin has topped out and soon we can see a massive drop , yeah we could possibly climb upto 13ks or 14ks level in coming days, coz trend is very strong, but we are in a Bubble right now, which could pop out soon.

Have a look at this chart, this is my custom indicator am working right now, which indicates various zones for prices. If you’ll look at Dec 2017s price movement we were moving in red zone bubble territory and in Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 we were moving in green zone, which is extreme undervalued zone and now we’re again in the red zone which is Bubble territory.

Another view towards this is that this rally could be an X wave which goes upto fib618 level of a complete corrective ABC formation, which could indicate that we’re moving towards double3 corrective formation, where first wave is a flat ABC and second one is Zigzag ABC , in that situation new lows upto 8k are possible, the better we should be prepared for both situations .

Ok guys That’s all for now, if you’ve enjoyed reading this report than do like and follow us to appreciate our hard work, it took a lot of time and effort to bring this, and don’t forget to comment and share your opinion with us, thankyou:)
Trade active: Bitcoin right now moving in a consolidation triangular formation which is a trappy formation so right now its better that you should stay away by going in any direction, this pattern could breakout in any direction and a pullback after that breakout could result in a fakeout and trend reversal, so better we should be neutral at this movement
Comment: meanwhile i've tried to make charts looks more cool and clear with using various color combinations, i hope you guys like them, if you have any suggestions on this, do share with me in comments, if you don't like this colors than plz also share that how can we make it look much better.
Trade active:
Chinese Yuan has dumped again, most likely the breakout from the triangular formation could be towards upside and we could see a huge pump breaking above 12.5k
Trade active: finally the triangular formation has broke out and right now we're retesting the support levels, breakout will be completely confirmed after breaking the resistance level
Trade active: so we get a fakeout and then a huge dump, as expected it didn't crossed the confirmation level which i've mentioned around 11970, but honestly i didn't follow my own rule and made a mistake by taking long before confirmation, sometimes it really gets hard to control your emotions, meanwhile i've been rekt but carefully managed my risk, although weekends are controlled by whales and bots to liquidate positions, hit stop losses and shake weak hands, better we stay safe and carefully take actions during weekends
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I appreciate your honesty when you make mistakes, no one makes a trade 100% correct, we all have fuck up at one time. Are you no longer a short like you were few weeks ago?
@kxa5111, now am more short even than before coz when we break 11130 level than prices confirmed that this wave is corrective wave and ill explain rest of the things in todays next update of the trap
+1 Reply
thanks for comprehensive post and for your clear analysis. What do you make of this 4% drop in BTC shortly after you published?
Thank you
@eugene077, thanks mate, honestly i was bullish and rekt luckily i properly managed my risk, now whales could pump again to shake the weak hands
I enjoyed reading the analysis, and respect your effort. Personally I don't believe the China news, but to each their own.
@XBTTENTACION, thanks mate, really appreciate your response:)
+1 Reply
what is going to be next?
Husain_Zabir StckngSats
@StckngSats, maybe whales will pump now to shake weak hands, thats what they do in weekends
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