before moving forward have a look at this idea i've published on 17th may 19, and precisely predicted the rally towards 13500 and huge drop from there, and at that time bitcoin was floating around 7800 level
clearly prices followed the exact same pattern and we see a huge dump from 14000s level, congratulations if you've made some solid gains by following this chart:)
clearly higher degree charts put more light on price directions.
starting with the beginning of this whole cycle when Bitcoin was just born and prices skyrocketed from 0$ to 32$ in just 11 months, those who joined the very first wave are miraculously so lucky or even so unlucky if they sell even on top, after that the first major sell off or the wave 2 was so deep and impactful as you can visualize in below chart.
from wave 2 prices start to follow the principles, as wave 2 was a wave, the next wave 3 has got the highest probabilities for extension.
extended wave 3 Finishes exactly 100% of wave 1, which makes both waves of equal length and with the rule of alteration we get a flat corrective wave 4, where prices dont fall sharp and deeply and takes usually longer time to end, precisely followed all the steps by bitcoin .
finally wave 5 ends between 61.8% and 78.6% of wave 3, coz one of the key rules of ellot waves are that wave 3 could never be the shortest ones, so in case of equal length of wave 1 & 3 wave 5 has to be the shortest wave and thats exactly what happened. at the level of 20000$ bitcoin finally completes the 5 wave formation and move towards the major correction which has to be bigger than the prior two corrective waves which exactly did not has happened.
correction rally from 20000 to 3200 was the shortest correction in last 10 years, where prices fall by -82% and recovered in just 365 days almost half of wave 4. this is really a very suspicious wave which we're dealing right now. i've already predicted this wave as an X wave which usually creates an illusion of beginning of a bull market and ends as a bear trap.
you can see all over the internet that sentiments for bitcoin are really big, even higher than 2017s rally.
crypto freaks are screaming for 2000, 40000 or even 100000 targets, without any reasons, and here's the time we need to realise that something big is going very wrong and look for the alternatives, coz nothing is impossible.
i think that the next wave which i've indicated as a wave W in chart has started and most probably we won't see prices going higher above 14k for next two years. keep in mind that we're now moving towards the final wave of this major correction, and usually final corrective wave ends at the top of wave 3 or the bottom of wave 4.
i think that the top of wave 3 around 1100 is the most likely bottom for this whole correction, coz we're getting 3 major levels here, top of wave 3, 61.8% of wave 5 and 23.6% of the whole 10 years formation, so most likely from this perspective bitcoin could eventually drop to 1100$ level in 2020 or 2021.
now let me be clear here that am not a bull or bear, as a chartist am completely neutral, screw the technology we're here to earn money, if you believe in tech than definitely you're on wrong place, better you ignore charts. and if you think that bitcoin is real money and fiat is scam than you're completely one sided, has its own pros and cons and almost everyone has shown this system as an evil or corrupt, but this system has sustain for more than 100 years, so you just can't replace it's reliability from bitcoin in just few years. i do believe that we would have a better alternative than fiat in near future, but for now current banking system or governments won't allow for a parallel economy or currency, so definitely they wont allow bitcoin to be used as a money coz we already have a legal and more sustainable system, and Mr. President has already signaled this.
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Bitcoin also going back up to 20k and thus correction turning into a flat is a possible scenario.
Next overall bull trend would last about 8-9 years starting in 2020 - 2021... only possible if bitcoin corrects correctly (along with most overvalued assets available on the market aka alts)