A_Cryptastic_Mind

Bitcoin struggling hard with the break-out - how it will unfold

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin is boinking against that $9800-ish resistance with all its power and it’s having a hard time breaking through.


Last time at April 25th, a single test resulted in a full drop back to $8700.

Today, we’re seeing already a double test (or a double top for that matter?) and on this 1 hourly chart, a bearish MACD and a negatively spiralling RSI . That’s not good news. Even though Bitcoin could surprise us here. We shouldn’t forget to look at all this information when it comes to our decision-making.


The 2-hourly chart shows a similar picture:


The 3-hourly is about to make a death cross in the MACD , and is showing a (see the last candle stick) trend reversal Heikin Ashi candle, hinting to a downward push first.


Same for the 4-hourly, even though the Heikin Ashi doji is green (the last candle stick), it’s still a trend reversal one:


On the daily however, we are seeing in the RSI that bitcoin is around being overbought, but still the momentum is upward. Looking at the MACD , instead of making a death cross, the blue line actually curves upward to continue the bullish trend .


Although, taking into account the shorter time frames, it is definitely possible that the MACD still curves downward and that we will have to get ready for another test later on, and that the break-out is not for today.

The weekly is looking great, with a MACD golden cross in the making, an upward trending RSI , and an overall nice looking chart. This makes me believe that it is only a matter of time before the big bitcoin break-out:



And finally, the 15min chart, showing how many times today we already tried breaking through that big resistance:



Conclusion:
- I do believe a break-out for bitcoin is only a matter of time. It will also come sooner then later. We have an incredibly bullish picture on the weekly, with a golden cross in the MACD in the making, and overall indicators and chart lay-out looking bullish .
- If I look at the chart and its components today, completely objectively, it looks like we are likely still a little early in breaking out. Almost every time frame confirms this view. If we look at the 15min, we see that we keep on testing that resistance line, showing proof of the strong upward momentum underneath, but also of the strong resistance.
- We could break the resistance today, but objectively, it looks like we might have to wait a couple of days more.
May 07
Comment: Like I said in this post, it was simply a little bit too early for BTC to have a durable break-out. Hence, the pullback. We are now at that first fibonacci level, finding support at $9,3K. I'll post more later.

May 08
Comment: Bitcoin still follows the trend highlighted in this post, now reaching the second Fibonacci retracement level:
Hourly chart:

Daily chart:
The daily chart definitely confirms a more bearish stance short term: MACD bearish cross, RSI in overbought area and curving downward. Also the Heikin Ashi candles after the doji (so the last two red ones) point to more downward pressure. This is completely healthy and required before a new leg up. So definitely HODL or wait for reversal to uptrend.
hey, whats your update on OST? it didn't break out at all, I was opening my trade based on your TA yesterday, so, still have chance?
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@Victorwu88, Yes, I should've talked a little more about indicators. But it's quite low (can go a bit lower of course), and due to bitcoin going for it today, it briefly breaks out of that cup & handle scenario. In the mid to long term, I'm not worried about OST though. I did not write it down as a day trade, so the typical crypto oscillations are part of the game... ;)
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Victorwu88 A_Cryptastic_Mind
@A_Cryptastic_Mind, thank you for the information!
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Also, the previous wave up was a double top.... this is going down!
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