BTC/USD H1/H12 charts (1/11/2019)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
EDIT: Sorry, guys, you're going to have to scroll the chart. Tradingview hiccuped when I published them apparently.

Good morning, traders. Price bounced exactly where I said it would yesterday, so where does that leave us today? The bounce created a bullish SFP on the D1 and price has consolidated around the $3630 level since then. During yesterday's live stream I spoke a bit about the volume which was greater on the second leg down on Bitstamp . However, I have gone back and added the global volume indicator (top of the chart) and it shows that, across the major exchanges, volume was less on the second leg down which is a good sign.

H1 chart:
As mentioned, price has been consolidating around the $3630 level since yesterday's bounce. This is the 78.6 retracement from the swing high to swing low. We can see price possibly printing an ascending channel which gives it room to pop up to the 50% retracement level at around $3800. Initially, I'm expecting price to find resistance at the EQ of that yellow supply zone at $3780-$3785. However, this is only the H1 supply, so if the demand is significant enough on a move up, it could push right through it, in which case we should expect a move all the way back up to $4000. RSI is just barely out of oversold at this time, but as mentioned yesterday we could still see price drop and create bullish divergence . Currently, MACD's histogram is printing bearish divergence over the past couple of days (from the $4000 area to these current candles). What this means is that if we don't get a strong move back up to that $4000 area sooner rather than later, the likelihood that we may see price attempting to push further down is increased significantly. We want to see RSI push through the noted resistance, and if it does it is likely that price will be pushing through the McGinley Dynamic thereby creating bullish momentum on this TF. On the positive side, we do see price attempting to push through the orders in the current yellow zone.

H12 chart:
We can note the bullish SFP on this TF as price wicked below the swing low at $3566 and closed back above it. However, since then we have yet to see any strong movement up. As shown, price bounced out of the H12 demand zone . As I have mentioned recently, we may be seeing a double top playing out as well. Traders should use caution with long positions if we get a close below $3566. This would appear to confirm the double top and the measured move would be a target of around $2935 which is also the S5 pivot . Until a close below $3566, it is only a possible double top . As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see volume increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate bullish momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and volume at that time.

Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.

Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Comment: I fixed the chart issue. If you'd rather not deal with doing it manually, here's the fixed version of the charts. Sorry for the inconvenience, folks.

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