Good morning, traders. Price bounced exactly where I said it would yesterday, so where does that leave us today? The bounce created a SFP on the D1 and price has consolidated around the $3630 level since then. During yesterday's live stream I spoke a bit about the which was greater on the second leg down on . However, I have gone back and added the global indicator (top of the chart) and it shows that, across the major exchanges, was less on the second leg down which is a good sign.
As mentioned, price has been consolidating around the $3630 level since yesterday's bounce. This is the 78.6 retracement from the swing high to swing low. We can see price possibly printing an which gives it room to pop up to the level at around $3800. Initially, I'm expecting price to find resistance at the EQ of that yellow at $3780-$3785. However, this is only the H1 supply, so if the demand is significant enough on a move up, it could push right through it, in which case we should expect a move all the way back up to $4000. is just barely out of oversold at this time, but as mentioned yesterday we could still see price drop and create . Currently, MACD's histogram is printing divergence over the past couple of days (from the $4000 area to these current candles). What this means is that if we don't get a strong move back up to that $4000 area sooner rather than later, the likelihood that we may see price attempting to push further down is increased significantly. We want to see push through the noted resistance, and if it does it is likely that price will be pushing through the Dynamic thereby creating momentum on this TF. On the positive side, we do see price attempting to push through the orders in the current yellow zone.
We can note the SFP on this TF as price wicked below the swing low at $3566 and closed back above it. However, since then we have yet to see any strong movement up. As shown, price bounced out of the H12 . As I have mentioned recently, we may be seeing a playing out as well. Traders should use caution with long positions if we get a close below $3566. This would appear to confirm the and the measured move would be a target of around $2935 which is also the S5 . Until a close below $3566, it is only a possible . As I have continued to warn traders, we need to see increasing as price increases to provide the fuel needed to push through that nearby overhead resistance. Failure to do so means price is most likely headed down. However, down may not be bad. If there is a move down from here to the ~$2900 target, then it could very well just be a Spring which would indicate momentum incoming and we could expect a very nice move up. However, we would have to wait until that point and evaluate price action and at that time.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
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