Sawcruhteez

Bitcoin Price Action Update (day 347)

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
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Consensio: Fully bullish

Patterns: 4h ascending triangle
Horizontals: R: $8,171 and $8,300 | S: $7,968 and $7887
Trendline: Bottom of ascending triangle
Parabolic SAR: D: $6,258 (recently broke up SAR)
Futures Curve: Contango
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.04%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to be bouncing from support
TD’ Sequential: W G7
Ichimoku Cloud: Inside weekly cloud with bullish kumo twist
Relative Strength Index: Lower highs and lower lows on the daily
Average Directional Index: Has rolled over and continues to pull back. If we are going to get another rally then I would expect this to roll back up above 25.
Price Action: 24h: +0.24% | 2w: +15.2% | 1m: +57.18%


Summary: Markets have be consolidating for about two weeks. This is when many market participants will get lulled to sleep. During times like this it is very important to remain alert and start preparing for / building the next position.

CME Futures expire on March 29th and the markets have had a strong propensity to make a big move shortly after / before the futures expire. This is a 6 month contract and I would expect significant volume to occur over the next few days as position traders cover their positions and / or open new ones.

This is a timing indicator that I have found very useful and credit goes to CarpeNoctom. If you do not subscribe to his Youtube channel then i would highly recommend it. He covers these contracts on a regular basis and has a great chart that shows how markets tend to react follow expirations.

There are a number of indicators that are currently cooling off from overbought conditions, specifically the ADX and the RSI. The weekly TD Sequential is also only two weeks away from it’s second green 9 in a row.

Neverthelss I remain bullish short term and am expecting another leg up. Price has been consolidating inside an ascending triangle over the last two weeks. We have put in two higher lows while volume decreases from the high.

Ascending triangles are one of my favorite patterns and they will often occur below major horizontal resistance. This tells me that we are eating away at resistance and putting in higher lows. Each time we put in a higher low support is moving up and resistance is not necessarily moving down in response.
On the third test of the horizontal boundary I expect resistance to break. I have starting building a long and have an stop market order to add at $8,451 - which is a little bit above where the ascending triangle confirms.

The measured move from the bullish continuation pattern is $9,659 which is closely in line with my next major area of horizontal resistance. If it does reverse then it could be sharp. The funding rates indicate a potential long squeeze. I am setting my stop at $7,444 which is slightly below the recent swing low.

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