Can BTC find enough strength for a push upwards from here?
After quite a violent fall and multiple fake bounces tricking the FOMO buyers, good signs are appearing that BTC has found support at the 7700 levels (for now), and if this support holds, then it's ready to make a move upwards.
The price is currently moving in a falling wedge, which is a bullish reversal pattern, combined with a bounce from a Fib support line, satisfactory volume (could be better), AND a currently forming higher low (could also make a double bottom if it retests 7720 again), which indicates that the sellers are getting exhausted at these levels, and need to take a break for now.
The confirmation for a move up will be if the price manages to break out of the falling wedge.
The projected targets are:
1. 8276
2. 8448 (this is a strong resistance, it's possible that the price pulls back from here)
3. 8620
4. 8865 (or, depending on how fast we get there, the upper resistance of the channel, which again is a strong resistance)
Stop loss should be placed below the 7720 low, because it's still possible that the market decides to break downwards if that support doesn't hold.
It's a good idea to take partial profits on each of the targets, because not all of them might be reached, and the price could turn around at any of the resistances, unless we get a strong momentum that could push upwards.
The price is currently moving in a falling wedge, which is a bullish reversal pattern, combined with a bounce from a Fib support line, satisfactory volume (could be better), AND a currently forming higher low (could also make a double bottom if it retests 7720 again), which indicates that the sellers are getting exhausted at these levels, and need to take a break for now.
The confirmation for a move up will be if the price manages to break out of the falling wedge.
The projected targets are:
1. 8276
2. 8448 (this is a strong resistance, it's possible that the price pulls back from here)
3. 8620
4. 8865 (or, depending on how fast we get there, the upper resistance of the channel, which again is a strong resistance)
Stop loss should be placed below the 7720 low, because it's still possible that the market decides to break downwards if that support doesn't hold.
It's a good idea to take partial profits on each of the targets, because not all of them might be reached, and the price could turn around at any of the resistances, unless we get a strong momentum that could push upwards.
Trade active
Comment:
Touched the support of the wedge. Still not broken. But not as strong as it should be to break out above.
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The breakout either up or down of the wedge should happen within the next 4 hours. Probably even sooner. Then we will know the direction with more certainty.
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Not good.
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The projected target of this wedge is 7850. Might bounce from there. But this shows weakness.
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Reached the projected target of the wedge at 7850 as mentioned.
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If it manages to stay above the 7840-7850, and slowly turn upwards from here, an inverse head and shoulders pattern would be formed (again, showing the lack of selling and taking the prices to the targets written above).
But this is only IF it completes forming this pattern as shown below, AND it manages to break the black resistance line of the wedge.
But this is only IF it completes forming this pattern as shown below, AND it manages to break the black resistance line of the wedge.
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Strong resistance at 8100. Very important level to determine if the price will be rejected strongly from it, or manage to break out and reach the first two targets written above.
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If we zoom in to 5 min chart, the price is forming a bull flag pattern. The projected target of this small bull flag is 8100 (if broken out).
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Weak bounce from the 7720 double bottom. It's forming a bear flag now, with a projected target at 7660 if broken down. If it reaches those levels, could just as easily touch the lower support line of the wedge currently at 7580.
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Broke out of the falling wedge. Good volume. It could retest the wedge resistance as a new support again, but shouldn't fall below that, if it's a real breakout.
Trade active:
After breaking out of the wedge, forming a bull flag and holding above the wedge. Very good sign. This is a buying opportunity here, with a stop loss below the wedge upper line.
Comment:
Still moving inside the bull flag. Tried to break out two times without success. Could retrace to the lower end of the flag in the 7981 - 7964 area before trying to break out again, but it should not go lower than that, or this flag will be invalidated.
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Broke down the bull flag. Not a good sign. But it still manages to stay above the wedge line, so this could still be just a retest of the previous resistance as a support.
If it breaks down again and goes back inside the wedge, then that will be a bad sign for the bulls in this scenario.
If it breaks down again and goes back inside the wedge, then that will be a bad sign for the bulls in this scenario.
Comment:
Broke down inside the wedge, and now it's retesting the wedge as a resistance again.
This is very bad. Chances for a breakout are reduced quite a lot, and we may revisit 7800-7700 again.
This is very bad. Chances for a breakout are reduced quite a lot, and we may revisit 7800-7700 again.
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After briefly returning inside the wedge, the price is now out of the wedge again, but this rise happened with very very low volume, so I don't trust it yet.
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Even after double top and two failed attempts at breaking the resistance, the sellers still couldn't push the price to new lows, and instead, we see the price making another attempt at breaking the resistance, and currently forming a higher low. All of this happening above the wedge support after breaking out of it.
The volume is still very low and far from satisfactory, but we may see it move higher from here.
The volume is still very low and far from satisfactory, but we may see it move higher from here.
Comment:
The price is back in the wedge after beaking key support at 7720.
Currently forming a bear flag which could take the price down to 7200 levels.
One potential support now is the wedge support line. It could still bounce from there, but the buyers are very weak still...
Currently forming a bear flag which could take the price down to 7200 levels.
One potential support now is the wedge support line. It could still bounce from there, but the buyers are very weak still...
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The price is gearing up for a retest of the 7720-7780 resistance (previous support)
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This better bounce soon... It will get ugly if it breaks down of that wedge support line.
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Bulls managed to hold the wedge support line. Might start a relief rally soon. But I wouldn't have high hopes. Still strong resistance at 7600, 7700.
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The rally I mentioned has begun. Lots of resistances on the way above.
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Inverse H&S pattern forming on lower timeframes. If it materializes, and manages to break the neckline at 7568, the target for it is 7750.
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If, however, it goes below 7430, then the iH&S is invalidated, and this could be just one of the many fakeouts we've seen in this market in recent days.
Order cancelled:
Conclusion: BTC did not find enough strength to break out of the wedge properly, and instead, made new lows. This trade was invalidated as soon as the price broke down the wedge support line and went lower. Now we see that there was a bounce and the price retested the wedge as a new resistance, where it got rejected. This looks like it is likely to go even lower, at least to retest the 6600, and more probably 6300 and 6000 levels.
In order to show that there is still some life left in it, it has to at least break the wedge resistance now, which is at 7225, and push higher above 7350. That could then indicate a retrace to 7700-7800 levels, where it will most likely fail and reverse back down again.
I will publish a new chart once we have a better setup to trade.
In order to show that there is still some life left in it, it has to at least break the wedge resistance now, which is at 7225, and push higher above 7350. That could then indicate a retrace to 7700-7800 levels, where it will most likely fail and reverse back down again.
I will publish a new chart once we have a better setup to trade.
Raising the stop loss to 7850-7900 is be a good idea.