Its great to be back here again after a long vacation.
Looking at the bitcoin's chart holistically and comparing the present chart with the 2013/2014 bear market chart, its very clear that a final sell-off is on the way, and could start anytime soon.
In Technical Analysis, there are three assumptions that analysts/traders/investors have used for decades as a basis:
1) The market discounts everything.
2) Price moves in trends.
3) History tends to repeat itself.
Though its been argued lately that history doesn't always repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
If history does rhyme, then we should expect to see a break of the 200 week MA (red thin line) and a $1800 bottom by feb/march IMO, especially because the cycles are lengthening.
Comparing both chart, we can see same pattern forming. If we measure the first fractal, the average drop from the previous market structure ($6k area) is 49.24%, same as 2014.
Now, the interesting part, If we confirm that we are forming the second fractal and we use the exact drop of the previous fractals which is 49.24%, just as we had it in 2014, the lowest drop could be somewhere around $1800
However, these are mere asumptions based on previous price action, it doesn't mean that we will go down to that level except history repeats itself, which i personally believe is most likely.
Moreover, the decreasing volume, coupled with the fact that the 20 day MA on the daily is about to cross below the 50 day MA, an indication that we will see a retest of the 200 weekly MA @ around $3100, in the next 24-48 hours (bear trap) and then a bounce to the $3450 area before we capitulate.
The important thing to note here is that we have an idea of a possible drop to $1800 level based on the previous price movement. This idea can only be validated once we have confirmations, and one of those confirmations is that we need to break the current support level @ $3100.
Looking at the bitcoin's chart holistically and comparing the present chart with the 2013/2014 bear market chart, its very clear that a final sell-off is on the way, and could start anytime soon.
In Technical Analysis, there are three assumptions that analysts/traders/investors have used for decades as a basis:
1) The market discounts everything.
2) Price moves in trends.
3) History tends to repeat itself.
Though its been argued lately that history doesn't always repeat itself, but it does rhyme.
If history does rhyme, then we should expect to see a break of the 200 week MA (red thin line) and a $1800 bottom by feb/march IMO, especially because the cycles are lengthening.
Comparing both chart, we can see same pattern forming. If we measure the first fractal, the average drop from the previous market structure ($6k area) is 49.24%, same as 2014.
Now, the interesting part, If we confirm that we are forming the second fractal and we use the exact drop of the previous fractals which is 49.24%, just as we had it in 2014, the lowest drop could be somewhere around $1800
However, these are mere asumptions based on previous price action, it doesn't mean that we will go down to that level except history repeats itself, which i personally believe is most likely.
Moreover, the decreasing volume, coupled with the fact that the 20 day MA on the daily is about to cross below the 50 day MA, an indication that we will see a retest of the 200 weekly MA @ around $3100, in the next 24-48 hours (bear trap) and then a bounce to the $3450 area before we capitulate.
The important thing to note here is that we have an idea of a possible drop to $1800 level based on the previous price movement. This idea can only be validated once we have confirmations, and one of those confirmations is that we need to break the current support level @ $3100.
