Greetings,
It's been an interesting 10-14 day period for world markets and cryptocurrencies . BTC will be changing price range very soon (5-15 days), we don't have enough information to be able to confidently predict the future, just yet ;). Bitcoin was rejected around $48,250 and has found support at $42,000, still finding the $45,000 area a resistance zone. Overall bitcoin is fluctuating in price inconsistently and not showing any decisive signs of a bullish future in my opinion.
On our chart above we're looking at BTC price action on the daily time frame, i've drawn in arrows to show the phases/cycles that crypto goes through. Historically after Bitcoins halving we have a parabolic cycle through BTC price action, however I don't feel we have been through this yet (even though we reached close to 70k).
As I said a few days ago, we would use the 50MA as support (blue line) which happened yesterday, we need to make sure BTC is holding this as support or we'll drop down to the next support level (picture below). Additionally we are holding our trend line (yellow line) which is very positive, i'm staying relatively bullish on BTC whilst this yellow line is held
We must understand that not one chart or indicator gives us a TRUE 100% representation of full reality. We can only use these as a guide to where we think the price will go. Cryptocurrencies, S&P, NASDAQ, the bond market, FED interest rates and the U.S. Dollar strength should be thought of when analysing the market.
THE FED aka the illuminati
As the Federal Reserve changes its story and rises interest rates we're seeing the beginning of a tightening cycle which puts bearish pressure on markets.
“One thing is certain: To be effective, the Fed will have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far,” said Bill Dudley, former Fed President
The world developed-market central banks adopted US policy in recent decades, means the Fed’s dilemma is now a global phenomenon. “This would mean hiking the federal funds rate considerably higher than currently anticipated. One way or another, to get inflation under control, the Fed will need to push bond yields high and stock prices lower,” Dudley said.
Cooling an over-heated, hyper-financialized economy, in a time of deglobalization and war, without first tightening financial conditions is proving rather difficult. Like all complex problems, this one took decades to create, so it may take decades to resolve.
FINAL TAKE;
I really can't see BITCOIN building up enough momentum to continue this rally. I really wish it would continue with this strength, if we cannot hold the 50MA, I'm seeing a break down to 33/35K.
Remember, nothing is guaranteed, control the controllable.
Mogues
It's been an interesting 10-14 day period for world markets and cryptocurrencies . BTC will be changing price range very soon (5-15 days), we don't have enough information to be able to confidently predict the future, just yet ;). Bitcoin was rejected around $48,250 and has found support at $42,000, still finding the $45,000 area a resistance zone. Overall bitcoin is fluctuating in price inconsistently and not showing any decisive signs of a bullish future in my opinion.
On our chart above we're looking at BTC price action on the daily time frame, i've drawn in arrows to show the phases/cycles that crypto goes through. Historically after Bitcoins halving we have a parabolic cycle through BTC price action, however I don't feel we have been through this yet (even though we reached close to 70k).
As I said a few days ago, we would use the 50MA as support (blue line) which happened yesterday, we need to make sure BTC is holding this as support or we'll drop down to the next support level (picture below). Additionally we are holding our trend line (yellow line) which is very positive, i'm staying relatively bullish on BTC whilst this yellow line is held
We must understand that not one chart or indicator gives us a TRUE 100% representation of full reality. We can only use these as a guide to where we think the price will go. Cryptocurrencies, S&P, NASDAQ, the bond market, FED interest rates and the U.S. Dollar strength should be thought of when analysing the market.
THE FED aka the illuminati
As the Federal Reserve changes its story and rises interest rates we're seeing the beginning of a tightening cycle which puts bearish pressure on markets.
“One thing is certain: To be effective, the Fed will have to inflict more losses on stock and bond investors than it has so far,” said Bill Dudley, former Fed President
The world developed-market central banks adopted US policy in recent decades, means the Fed’s dilemma is now a global phenomenon. “This would mean hiking the federal funds rate considerably higher than currently anticipated. One way or another, to get inflation under control, the Fed will need to push bond yields high and stock prices lower,” Dudley said.
Cooling an over-heated, hyper-financialized economy, in a time of deglobalization and war, without first tightening financial conditions is proving rather difficult. Like all complex problems, this one took decades to create, so it may take decades to resolve.
FINAL TAKE;
I really can't see BITCOIN building up enough momentum to continue this rally. I really wish it would continue with this strength, if we cannot hold the 50MA, I'm seeing a break down to 33/35K.
Remember, nothing is guaranteed, control the controllable.
Mogues
