Okay, so there a couple of points I would like to make. First, everyone is contributing this spike to Bitmex shutting down its servers for maintenance, that is probable, but let me explain that Bitemx is a Futures exchange: a bitcoin derivative, something few people understand, which means that they do not actually trade bitcoin, instead they trade contracts and these contracts are related to bitcoins price and/or prices of relative cryptocurrencies which pays out in bitcoin in relation to the contract. In this situation, I can see two possibilities, first, that the pump and the shut down could have been a coincidence for whatever reason, or that whales set up longs on Bitmex (the only reason that would explain the timing) and then they took advantage of it and caused a slight short squeeze in the actual market which then cause the price of the Bitmex Contracts to skyrocket and messing up orders and such. Other than that, there was a short squeeze to be expected as shorts ere over saturated and therefore, shorts had weak hands which means that a small increase in price would cause a massive liquidation which is what occurred.
On to bitcoin...
So, bitcoin has made a move up, however, this has caused several problems for the future of bitcoin's prices, but I believe that the market has taken a pause in hopes of seeing what news comes out in relation to the ETF on the 23rd the news has been more critical as of late because I have notice that it is contributing significantly to market sentiment as the bullish sentiment is weak right now and the market needs hope, please note that this is a nonphysical ETF, so it does not really make a difference in effecting bitcoin's price directly but it will give a positive market sentiment for the actual important ETF and it's acceptance. (In my personal opinion I disagree with this logic and I believe the approval of the CBOE ETF would be more likely to occur without this ETF approval given how few ETF's the SEC approves.)
The Charts:
I believe there are three possibilities that are occurring.
1.) The most probably situation at this moment I believe is that this a bear flag in orange and I believe that it was confirmed by this last move, the peak volume occurs at the pole of the movement. The price objective of this bear flag is in the mid 4000 range and it has a roughly 70% chance of hitting this target. <=Most probable scenario.
2.) In Purple, there is a head and shoulder continuation pattern, however the white arrow that is upward sloping displays that volume is increasing into the head and the right shoulder, this is the inverse from a head and shoulder topping pattern where the highest point of volume it the left shoulder and then it decreases. I do not know whether or not that the volume invalids this continuation pattern, if it is still valid, the slope of the pattern is downward sloping indicating a weak bull trend and a price objective around 3500 and it has a close to 85% probability of hitting this target if it is valid. <=Possible But maybe invalid
3.)I do like to give a bullish chance too because I tend to lean more bullish, but right as I was writing this, it fell through, so I currently do not have one at the moment.
Last Analysis:
On to bitcoin...
So, bitcoin has made a move up, however, this has caused several problems for the future of bitcoin's prices, but I believe that the market has taken a pause in hopes of seeing what news comes out in relation to the ETF on the 23rd the news has been more critical as of late because I have notice that it is contributing significantly to market sentiment as the bullish sentiment is weak right now and the market needs hope, please note that this is a nonphysical ETF, so it does not really make a difference in effecting bitcoin's price directly but it will give a positive market sentiment for the actual important ETF and it's acceptance. (In my personal opinion I disagree with this logic and I believe the approval of the CBOE ETF would be more likely to occur without this ETF approval given how few ETF's the SEC approves.)
The Charts:
I believe there are three possibilities that are occurring.
1.) The most probably situation at this moment I believe is that this a bear flag in orange and I believe that it was confirmed by this last move, the peak volume occurs at the pole of the movement. The price objective of this bear flag is in the mid 4000 range and it has a roughly 70% chance of hitting this target. <=Most probable scenario.
2.) In Purple, there is a head and shoulder continuation pattern, however the white arrow that is upward sloping displays that volume is increasing into the head and the right shoulder, this is the inverse from a head and shoulder topping pattern where the highest point of volume it the left shoulder and then it decreases. I do not know whether or not that the volume invalids this continuation pattern, if it is still valid, the slope of the pattern is downward sloping indicating a weak bull trend and a price objective around 3500 and it has a close to 85% probability of hitting this target if it is valid. <=Possible But maybe invalid
3.)I do like to give a bullish chance too because I tend to lean more bullish, but right as I was writing this, it fell through, so I currently do not have one at the moment.
Last Analysis:
Comment:
I wanted to add that this price move is currently on a piece of support, and I am expecting another movement up, however, not to the degree of yesterday. But I am also expecting this to fail as a support as there is very buying occurring: for price to move, up there must be an increase in buy volume; for price to move down, there can be an increase in selling or an absence of buying volume.
Comment:
I re-adjusted my bear flag to make sure that it includes both of the There is a pennant forming, and I do believe that it is a strong one with a pretty good price objective close to the 7000 range. However, if we just measure the triangle of the pennant, the target would be somewhere around 6850. I do want this to move up to 7000-7200 to eliminate shorts, however, I do not know if that will be the case. The bear flag is still in play, and a move to 7200 within an extended time frame would still be an acceptable bear flag, and if you would like to disagree there is still the possible head and shoulder continuation pattern.