As discussed, a new update regarding the Bitcoin TA I’m posting here on TradingView.
Is my bias shifted a bit? Well, short term it’s a bit shifted. My main perspective was that we were dropping downwards after rejecting around the downtrend line, however that bounce at $3,900 on the bottom of the upwards channel confirmed that we’re not going down soon.
However, some things have to be considered.
- First of all, I don’t know why everyone is relating the breakout to ‘the’ breakout of the bearmarket, as the blue line is a line with 1 contact point. It started from the top & touched at the last high around $6,500, after which we’ve dropped significantly. Only one contact point, which is nothing.
The line that’s more important to me is the pink line, which is basically the main line since the tops around the capitulation in February. The line has 6-7 contact points and is constantly used as the rejection line in the bearmarket. For me end of bearmarket is clearly when we’ve broken that one down.
- The sentiment is extremely bullish at this point in which I’m feeling it’s a timetravel back towards 2017. Please bear in mind that the majority is mostly wrong and therefore we still have to be cautiously bearish in general.
- The volume is still weak and not there on the upwards movements. Have to agree that the slightest upwards push we’ve had in the past 24 hours produced some upwards momentum, however it’s not a massive move still.
So, as we’re seeing a small altseason, what’s my main scenario still? (This scenario is written down since December ’18 and still valid as my main scenario).
- Slight upwards/sideways continuation of Bitcoin till end of April.
- This results in the first altseason, as alts pop when Bitcoin is stabilizing. Given the fact that the drawdowns in altcoins are very big, the upwards pushes (gaps between support and resistances levels) could easily lead to 100-200% profits during these times, which we’ve seen on Cardano as well.
- May/June Bitcoin final push down towards the bottom (possibly $2,400, but we’ll have to see).
- After that the major altseason starts, as alts have dropped down to the level they are currently breaking out and retesting that + resulting in an upwards trendline. This will end up in a major altseason during July – September, as the next pushes are even bigger than the previous one.
- After September beginning of the new uptrend in Bitcoin and bullmarket marked by the bottom in May/June on Bitcoin. This could also be through ETF approval or me finishing my study.
So, what’s my main scenario at this point? Generally I’m leaning towards calmth on BTC and upwards grind in the channel towards $4,400-4,500. I’m not expecting that we’re breaking the upper resistane area around $4,200-4,400 at this point and I’m expecting that we’re rejecting there.
Could we be breaking upwards? Yes we can, however I’d like to see a clear volume breakout move of that level + retest before considering bullishness. A trap towards $4,700-4,800 is still very likely to be coming around (a fakeout). Especially still given many bearish indicators at this point we have to be calm on the perspectives and therefore my main scenario is the one written above.
Also in bottom forming I find it quite likely to be making one more slight bottom (could be the spring) in which we’re confirming the bullish divergences and liquidity beneath these levels. I’m not expecting $1,000 or $1,300 and have never expected that.
Cheers, back on Sunday with an altcoin chart!
Is my bias shifted a bit? Well, short term it’s a bit shifted. My main perspective was that we were dropping downwards after rejecting around the downtrend line, however that bounce at $3,900 on the bottom of the upwards channel confirmed that we’re not going down soon.
However, some things have to be considered.
- First of all, I don’t know why everyone is relating the breakout to ‘the’ breakout of the bearmarket, as the blue line is a line with 1 contact point. It started from the top & touched at the last high around $6,500, after which we’ve dropped significantly. Only one contact point, which is nothing.
The line that’s more important to me is the pink line, which is basically the main line since the tops around the capitulation in February. The line has 6-7 contact points and is constantly used as the rejection line in the bearmarket. For me end of bearmarket is clearly when we’ve broken that one down.
- The sentiment is extremely bullish at this point in which I’m feeling it’s a timetravel back towards 2017. Please bear in mind that the majority is mostly wrong and therefore we still have to be cautiously bearish in general.
- The volume is still weak and not there on the upwards movements. Have to agree that the slightest upwards push we’ve had in the past 24 hours produced some upwards momentum, however it’s not a massive move still.
So, as we’re seeing a small altseason, what’s my main scenario still? (This scenario is written down since December ’18 and still valid as my main scenario).
- Slight upwards/sideways continuation of Bitcoin till end of April.
- This results in the first altseason, as alts pop when Bitcoin is stabilizing. Given the fact that the drawdowns in altcoins are very big, the upwards pushes (gaps between support and resistances levels) could easily lead to 100-200% profits during these times, which we’ve seen on Cardano as well.
- May/June Bitcoin final push down towards the bottom (possibly $2,400, but we’ll have to see).
- After that the major altseason starts, as alts have dropped down to the level they are currently breaking out and retesting that + resulting in an upwards trendline. This will end up in a major altseason during July – September, as the next pushes are even bigger than the previous one.
- After September beginning of the new uptrend in Bitcoin and bullmarket marked by the bottom in May/June on Bitcoin. This could also be through ETF approval or me finishing my study.
So, what’s my main scenario at this point? Generally I’m leaning towards calmth on BTC and upwards grind in the channel towards $4,400-4,500. I’m not expecting that we’re breaking the upper resistane area around $4,200-4,400 at this point and I’m expecting that we’re rejecting there.
Could we be breaking upwards? Yes we can, however I’d like to see a clear volume breakout move of that level + retest before considering bullishness. A trap towards $4,700-4,800 is still very likely to be coming around (a fakeout). Especially still given many bearish indicators at this point we have to be calm on the perspectives and therefore my main scenario is the one written above.
Also in bottom forming I find it quite likely to be making one more slight bottom (could be the spring) in which we’re confirming the bullish divergences and liquidity beneath these levels. I’m not expecting $1,000 or $1,300 and have never expected that.
Cheers, back on Sunday with an altcoin chart!