Good Monday morning, traders, and welcome back. Bitcoin had a quiet weekend ranging with price while nearing completion of its LPS (Last Point of Supply) in the form of a pennant. I believe this to be subwave 4 of the larger wave 1. As such, my expectation is that we will see price reach $8700/$8800 or $9200/$9500, with the latter being an extended subwave 5. Currently, I am still leaning toward that latter as it allows price movement up to the weekly box, so I would expect to see another SOS (Show of Strength) up to the former price and, at that time, another LPS, followed by the move up to the higher target. Often we see price dip below the pennant's support (usually in the form of a "spring") which tricks traders into going short. This, in turn, fills outstanding C.O. longs before price quickly reverses and heads in the other direction.
We closed bullishly on the weekly and have the monthly close hitting us tomorrow. I believe we will likely see sideways movement/consolidation to complete the LPS until the monthly close, at which time I expect to see strong movement up. I understand that traders are concerned with the 200 MA, but we have to remember that a moving average is nothing more than just that -- an average of (in this case) the previous 200 periods. As such, it does not keep price from moving up, rather it just tells us the strength of the movement (i.e. what has happened/what is currently happening, but not what is going to happen), which is why it appears to provide support and resistance but only until it doesn't anymore. Could price fail to move above the 200 MA? Of course it could, but that isn't because of some imaginary line that's keeping price from moving up. Rather, it's just a visual representation of lack of demand in relation to outstanding supply. If C.O. has removed enough loose supply from the market during this year's accumulation, then demand should outpace supply thereby chasing price up and through the 200 MA. We have breached the long-term descending wedge's resistance and currently remain above it, so the expectation should be to continue moving upward rather than downward until proven otherwise.
Some traders are comparing this bullish trend to the April bullish trend and then suggesting price will fail at the 200 MA again, however they are not watching volume. During April's run, we saw volume start strong with the short squeeze but decrease with every new high. This time around, we see volume increasing with every new high. As such, volume is in agreement with price this time suggesting that we are in a strong bullish trend that should continue taking us higher.
This current Wyckoff labeling denotes an overall reaccumulation period divided into distribution, accumulation, and then reaccumulation on this smaller TF. On the larger TF, the lowest point should be the spring and the upcoming spring on the smaller TF should be the larger TF's test of support after July 27th's spring. As such, the following lower BUEC/LPS is for the smaller TF while the higher BUEC/LPS is for the larger TF. I usually go more in-depth in this during the daily live streams. Be safe trading and remember that the only thing you control is how much you lose, so risk management is the key.
We closed bullishly on the weekly and have the monthly close hitting us tomorrow. I believe we will likely see sideways movement/consolidation to complete the LPS until the monthly close, at which time I expect to see strong movement up. I understand that traders are concerned with the 200 MA, but we have to remember that a moving average is nothing more than just that -- an average of (in this case) the previous 200 periods. As such, it does not keep price from moving up, rather it just tells us the strength of the movement (i.e. what has happened/what is currently happening, but not what is going to happen), which is why it appears to provide support and resistance but only until it doesn't anymore. Could price fail to move above the 200 MA? Of course it could, but that isn't because of some imaginary line that's keeping price from moving up. Rather, it's just a visual representation of lack of demand in relation to outstanding supply. If C.O. has removed enough loose supply from the market during this year's accumulation, then demand should outpace supply thereby chasing price up and through the 200 MA. We have breached the long-term descending wedge's resistance and currently remain above it, so the expectation should be to continue moving upward rather than downward until proven otherwise.
Some traders are comparing this bullish trend to the April bullish trend and then suggesting price will fail at the 200 MA again, however they are not watching volume. During April's run, we saw volume start strong with the short squeeze but decrease with every new high. This time around, we see volume increasing with every new high. As such, volume is in agreement with price this time suggesting that we are in a strong bullish trend that should continue taking us higher.
This current Wyckoff labeling denotes an overall reaccumulation period divided into distribution, accumulation, and then reaccumulation on this smaller TF. On the larger TF, the lowest point should be the spring and the upcoming spring on the smaller TF should be the larger TF's test of support after July 27th's spring. As such, the following lower BUEC/LPS is for the smaller TF while the higher BUEC/LPS is for the larger TF. I usually go more in-depth in this during the daily live streams. Be safe trading and remember that the only thing you control is how much you lose, so risk management is the key.
