AlanSantana

Bitcoin's 2024 Elliot Wave Theory Wave Count (w $138,000 Target)

Long
BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
This 2024 Elliot Wave Theory wave count has never been seen before...

Good day my fellow Cryptocurrency traders, readers, supporters and chart analysts; how are you feeling today?

Let's consider a full wave-count of the current market regarding Bitcoin's long-term (weekly) chart.

This is a mental exercise and intended for learning and entertainment purposes only... It can turn out to be accurate though, so do take a minute of your time to read and share your views in the comment section below.


Bitcoin's Bullish Impulse

➖ Starting November 2022 we have the first wave of a bullish impulse. (5-3-5-3-5.)
This first wave started November 2022 and ended April 2023. This would be wave one of a higher degree.

➖ From April 2023 through September 2023 we have the first correction (3-3-3). This would be wave two of a higher degree.

➖ From September 2023 through February 2024 we have the third wave of the impulse, another 5-up sequence and naturally, this would be the third wave of a higher degree.

This is all pretty simple and standard so far as we are looking at the waves in retrospect.

➖ From February 2024 through April/May 2024 we can expect the second correction, a Zig-zag, and this would be wave four of a higher degree.

This is our first projection and based on how the Wave Principle works and should be used according to its designers, this projection is only a map. We use it to navigate a potential future scenario and we need to adapt and adjust the count as the waves develop. Not that the system will help us predict anything but rather that it can help us navigate uncharted waters.

This wave four of a higher degree cannot enter the territory of wave two, which puts the lowest price possible for the upcoming correction at $31,805 based on Elliot Wave Theory.

This projection of mine also takes into account Elliotts law of alternation.

Notice that wave two is of a wide length. Based on the law of alternation, wave four would be of a short length and this can be seen clearly depicted on the chart.

The end of wave four being between 0.5 and 0.618 Fib. retracement also sits pretty well with Nelson Elliott, he was a great proponent of the Fibonacci sequence and proportions; in fact, his book, "Nature's Law: The Secret Of The Universe," is full of pictures on this topic.

Just as wave three would lead to a correction (wave four), wave four invariable leads to another impulse; the final and fifth wave of the higher degree.


Are you ready? Let's do this!

➖ The fifth and last wave of the higher degree includes a classic 5-3-5-3-5 in the lower degree we are analyzing. The fifth wave is the speculative wave and the wave when and where the market goes wild.

I am aware of two methods based on the Wave Principle to project a potential target but I will use only one here for the sake of simplicity.

To calculate the top of the fifth wave we multiple the top of wave three by 1.618 and add the result to wave's three peak price. (52,985 x 1.618 = 85,729 — 52,985 + 85,729 = $138,714.)

So the potential for the final impulse or fifth wave based on the Elliot Wave Theory system, amounts to $138,714. This can happen sometime in 2025.

The entire wave count would look something like this:

(Please keep in mind that the shape of the waves and how the waves actually develop can be totally unpredictable.)

Now, let me just say that this is just a projection; a "map," as the system creators would say.


A bit of theory

The Wave Principle is considered complex and intimating to many people but, here and right now, I am going to tell you that this is not so.

If you go to the source, you will realize that the system is quite simple and straight forward; please, allow me expand.

The system starts with Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 30's and is followed by Hamilton Bolton. From Hamilton Bolton the next genius to put his mind and energy into it is A. J. Frost followed by Robert Prechter Jr. and finally Richard Russell.

If you go through all the books starting from Elliotts Masterworks, you will see and realize that the system is not as complex as initially thought but the information cannot all be found in one place. I was amazed to be reading book after book just to found one or two lines in each book that would clear the doubts that needed to be cleared to be able to use the system in a practical way. A "filter" I thought...

Not one of the above mentioned historical, absolutely genius, market analysts ever produced highly, ultra-mega complex wave counts. If you check the work of Richard Russell for example, you will see that he never goes beyond 1,2,3 and sometimes 1,2,3,4,5 and yet he is added to the Elliott Wave encyclopedia by Robert Prechter Jr. as one of those that used the system successfully to analyze stocks, back in those days.

We are talking about 50, 60 and even 70 years or more ago.

Amazement and genuine appreciation for what I was reading are words not strong enough to express the feeling I felt when a 70 years old book was explaining in detail why Bitcoin did what it did in 2021 in the form of a higher high in November as well as to predict the fact that we would get a double top rather than a blow off top as in 2017... The system doesn't need to be "updated" to be useful to you today.

The above wave count is only a projection I did on whim and the end target for 2025 can be calculated in different ways. This projection and wave count is based on data starting November 2022 and ignores additional data which can make it inaccurate.

The way I was seeing this in my minds eye before writing it meant that this wave wouldn't be the end of the major bull-market we are about to experience but only a part of it... So maybe we would be missing the fifth of the fifth wave.

If you strongly disagree with this trade idea, the best way to communicate this in a decent and humane way is by publishing your own chart. Once you publish a chart, we can all look at it and discuss it.

We welcome all constructive criticism.
Childish and immature behavior and responses are highly appreciated and welcomed as well. 😊

Leave a comment with your thoughts.

Thank you for reading.

Namaste.

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