Greetings from Amsterdam,
Here a fresh update from the markets..
Zoom out and see the bigger picture.. Well that is quite simple; TRADING RANGE... Never forget the cycle of price in price action is;
TREND --> TREND CHANNEL (bullish or bearish) --> TRADING RANGE --> TREND --> TREND CHANNEL (bullish or bearish) --> TRADING RANGE.. Repeat over and over..
What do i see from a price action standpoint?? Strong bearish candles.. TREND CANDLES.. the 2 ii pattern that is forming now (at the moment of writing) I interpret as a bearish flag and simply a pause in trend.
With a tight bearish trend channel as it is now? what is the probability of a bullish reversal? Understand that 75% (!) of trend reversals fail!!!
The pattern that is now forming, the bearish channel, is the result of a HIGHER HIGH MAJOR TREND REVERSAL + an attempt to breakout of a trading range.. Well 80% of breakout attempts out of a trading range FAIL!
Personally I see the probability of another swing down more common/likely than a bullish reversal..
Never forget it is all about PROBABILITIES..
BUT if you would like to take a HIGH PROBABILITY trade this would be one..
What is high probability trade ?? --> more worse risk reward ratio because your stopp loss is above the high of the major move.. but the chances of winning the trade is bigger..
Feel free to like and share and comment..
Here a fresh update from the markets..
Zoom out and see the bigger picture.. Well that is quite simple; TRADING RANGE... Never forget the cycle of price in price action is;
TREND --> TREND CHANNEL (bullish or bearish) --> TRADING RANGE --> TREND --> TREND CHANNEL (bullish or bearish) --> TRADING RANGE.. Repeat over and over..
What do i see from a price action standpoint?? Strong bearish candles.. TREND CANDLES.. the 2 ii pattern that is forming now (at the moment of writing) I interpret as a bearish flag and simply a pause in trend.
With a tight bearish trend channel as it is now? what is the probability of a bullish reversal? Understand that 75% (!) of trend reversals fail!!!
The pattern that is now forming, the bearish channel, is the result of a HIGHER HIGH MAJOR TREND REVERSAL + an attempt to breakout of a trading range.. Well 80% of breakout attempts out of a trading range FAIL!
Personally I see the probability of another swing down more common/likely than a bullish reversal..
Never forget it is all about PROBABILITIES..
BUT if you would like to take a HIGH PROBABILITY trade this would be one..
What is high probability trade ?? --> more worse risk reward ratio because your stopp loss is above the high of the major move.. but the chances of winning the trade is bigger..
Feel free to like and share and comment..