Bitcoin - Technical formations breaking down?

In this study, I show the Rising Wedge that has broken down, driving the recent drop, with price finding the support line of the Bullish Megaphone structure for a 3rd time.

The current challenges in this chart for bulls to overcome are:

• The break of the Wedge projects a movement below the support of the Megaphone;
  
• A Bear Flag is formed
  
• The downward Elliott Wave count is 4, with a 5th leg to go;
  
• A break below $21,351 means we are going lower;
  
• Once $21.3k breaks, the next support levels are $20.4k and $18.4k.
  

On the other hand, if price can find support above 21.4k and rally, then we could be in for an explosion toward $40K. This is because the Wave 5 (marked in Green) would suddenly transform into a minor Wave 1 and indicate a commencement of a wave 3 leg higher.

The good news is, whether it’s a rally from $21.5k, $20.4k, or $18.4k, it certainly seems like the trend is up.

What do you think? Are we going towards $40k in quick time, falling back towards $18k before rising higher, about to break down completely and sink back into a continuation of the bear market?