You may have noticed that the alt market is bleeding due to recent BTC dump. As usual these crashes are expected, they are part of the market cycle, it's not the first crash, it won't be the last :o
Does that mean that the bull market is over ? in the current situation the answer is no. Indeed let's look at the indicators one by one:
Chart pattern
I've drawn in red the support which supports the last major bottom, we started to be far away from it, it's not healthy for the price to move away so far from an oblique support, this means that the price curve becomes more and more parabolic, this can't last forever. While the price stays above this support we can't consider a bear market. Also I've linked the two tops to form a parallel channel in which the BTC could evolve, the bottom of this channel is a bit higher than the red support. What I expect is that the price bounces on the bottom of the channel with a wick touching the red support around 38k.
Indicators:
Fibonacci: the price made an ATH at the 3.272 fibonacci level before starting to dump. Now it looks like it wants to go back to retest the 2.24 level which corresponds also to the former ATH, to the bottom of the channel and to the EMA 50, thus a very important level where many indicators are converging
Ichimoku: this indicator is stimm 100+ bullish ! green cloud, tenkan above kijun above cloud and Chikou above everything else. However tenkan started to be quite far away from kijun, this means that BTC was overbought and that a correction was necessary. For the moment the price bounced on kijun but usually such a flash crash has a lot of momentum, it can't stop immediately to pump again in the next hours. Thus I expect the price to dump a bit more as mentioned above.
RSI: we had a strong bearish divergence which was building up since the last ATH which was a first signal for a correction. Also just as the price, RSI has its own support, and it started to be quite far away from it, and it still didn't touch it, there is room from a bit more dumping. Also don't forget that in an upward trend, the important level to consider on RSI is not 50% but 40%. This 40% level also corresponds to the red support which was not touched yet. However if RSI don't breaks this support we are still in an upward trend :)
MACD: this indicator was very bullish, far above the 0 level, however the macd line just crossed the signal line downwards, that a signal that the price will dump a bit or at least consolidate. But again all this happened far above the 0 level, thus it's still bullish !
EMA : both EMA, 50 and 100 are still going upwards and 50 is above 100, this is still a bullish setup, the recent dump is nearly invisible on them and we keep the upward trend.
Conclusion:
We are still in an strong upward trend, the price will make a correction down to the 40k-42k zone with probably a wick touching the lower supports before resuming the upward trend toward the 3.618 fibonacci level at 63k :)
Does that mean that the bull market is over ? in the current situation the answer is no. Indeed let's look at the indicators one by one:
Chart pattern
I've drawn in red the support which supports the last major bottom, we started to be far away from it, it's not healthy for the price to move away so far from an oblique support, this means that the price curve becomes more and more parabolic, this can't last forever. While the price stays above this support we can't consider a bear market. Also I've linked the two tops to form a parallel channel in which the BTC could evolve, the bottom of this channel is a bit higher than the red support. What I expect is that the price bounces on the bottom of the channel with a wick touching the red support around 38k.
Indicators:
Fibonacci: the price made an ATH at the 3.272 fibonacci level before starting to dump. Now it looks like it wants to go back to retest the 2.24 level which corresponds also to the former ATH, to the bottom of the channel and to the EMA 50, thus a very important level where many indicators are converging
Ichimoku: this indicator is stimm 100+ bullish ! green cloud, tenkan above kijun above cloud and Chikou above everything else. However tenkan started to be quite far away from kijun, this means that BTC was overbought and that a correction was necessary. For the moment the price bounced on kijun but usually such a flash crash has a lot of momentum, it can't stop immediately to pump again in the next hours. Thus I expect the price to dump a bit more as mentioned above.
RSI: we had a strong bearish divergence which was building up since the last ATH which was a first signal for a correction. Also just as the price, RSI has its own support, and it started to be quite far away from it, and it still didn't touch it, there is room from a bit more dumping. Also don't forget that in an upward trend, the important level to consider on RSI is not 50% but 40%. This 40% level also corresponds to the red support which was not touched yet. However if RSI don't breaks this support we are still in an upward trend :)
MACD: this indicator was very bullish, far above the 0 level, however the macd line just crossed the signal line downwards, that a signal that the price will dump a bit or at least consolidate. But again all this happened far above the 0 level, thus it's still bullish !
EMA : both EMA, 50 and 100 are still going upwards and 50 is above 100, this is still a bullish setup, the recent dump is nearly invisible on them and we keep the upward trend.
Conclusion:
We are still in an strong upward trend, the price will make a correction down to the 40k-42k zone with probably a wick touching the lower supports before resuming the upward trend toward the 3.618 fibonacci level at 63k :)