Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
With the BTC halving coming up next year, I was interested in finding out how the price of BTCUSD has previously reacted before, during and after this event. (I love data and AI, it's a match made in wonderland).
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to happen some time next year during April or May (2024). And so, with the help of AI tools, I analyzed the historic price trends of BTC around the time of the halving all the way back until 2012 and present this estimated price movement on the chart with the path line (chart on the left).
I've taken the liberty to point out key zones (support zone and resistance zone) with white trendlines. They often overlap with the yellow Fibonacci Retracement, which is added confirmation for key zones to watch. The vertical green lines are time stamps in 3-month intervals leading up to and after the halving.
For ease of reference to trendlines and Fibonacci retracement, here's the full chart:
Chart on the right: These are BTC prices in 3-month intervals from previous halvings, displayed in a table for easy viewing. Also my prediction for price RANGES for the upcoming halving. Note that it's displayed as a price but do give leverage for +-2K up or down.
Some additional details about the BTC halving:
🌐The BTC halving is a scheduled event that occurs every 210,000 blocks
🌐It's a built-in feature of the Bitcoin protocol that was designed to control the supply of Bitcoin.
🌐The halving reduces the block reward by half
🌐The block reward is currently 6.25 BTC
The halving of the block reward is a way to ensure that the supply of Bitcoin is limited. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and the halving ensures that the supply of new BTC is gradually reduced over time. This makes Bitcoin a scarce asset, which is one of the reasons why it is so valuable, apart from the natural advantage of being first.
The halving of the block reward also has an impact on the difficulty of mining Bitcoin. The difficulty of mining is adjusted every 2,016 blocks to ensure that a new block is mined every 10 minutes on average. However, when the block reward is halved, the difficulty of mining is also halved. This means that miners need to spend more computing power to mine a block, which makes it more difficult to mine Bitcoin.
The halving of the block reward has a number of implications for Bitcoin. It helps to ensure that the supply of Bitcoin is limited, which makes it a scarce asset. It also makes Bitcoin more difficult to mine, which increases the cost of mining. However, the halving also increases the value of Bitcoin, as it makes it more scarce and difficult to obtain.
Now the data conclusions (on average, historically) of how the BTC halving has influenced the BTCUSD price:
6 MONTHS BEFORE
The price of BTC can start to increase in the months before the halving. This is likely due to anticipation of the event and the increased scarcity of BTC after the halving.
3 MONTHS BEFORE
The price of BTC tends to increase in the months leading up to the halving. This is likely due to anticipation of the event and the increased scarcity of BTC after the halving.
1 MONTH BEFORE
The price of BTC typically peaks in the month before the halving. This is likely due to the final frenzy of buying before the supply of new BTC is cut in half.
MONTH DURING HALVING
The price of BTC can be volatile in the month of the halving. This is because there is uncertainty about how the market will react to the event.
1 MONTH AFTER
The price of BTC typically starts to rise in the month after the halving. This is likely due to the increased scarcity of BTC and the anticipation of future price increases.
3 MONTHS AFTER
The price of BTC can continue to rise in the months after the halving. This is because the scarcity of BTC continues to increase and the market begins to realize the long-term implications of the halving.
6 MONTHS AFTER
The price of BTC can plateau or decline in the months after the halving. This is because the market may have already priced in the long-term implications of the halving.
NOTE that this isn't rule of thumb, it's a general trend based on the past halvings and there have been some exceptions. For example, the price of BTC didn't increase in the month before the halving in 2012.
IN CONCLUSION, overall, the BTC halving has a positive impact on the BTCUSD price. This is because the halving reduces the supply of new BTC, which increases the scarcity of BTC and drives up the price.
If you want to know more about the trends on altcoins during the BTC halving, there's some more info on it here:
Next up, I'll do a more in-depth post on the altcoin liquidity rotations around the BTC halving.
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
BTCUSDT
BTCUSD
With the BTC halving coming up next year, I was interested in finding out how the price of BTCUSD has previously reacted before, during and after this event. (I love data and AI, it's a match made in wonderland).
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to happen some time next year during April or May (2024). And so, with the help of AI tools, I analyzed the historic price trends of BTC around the time of the halving all the way back until 2012 and present this estimated price movement on the chart with the path line (chart on the left).
I've taken the liberty to point out key zones (support zone and resistance zone) with white trendlines. They often overlap with the yellow Fibonacci Retracement, which is added confirmation for key zones to watch. The vertical green lines are time stamps in 3-month intervals leading up to and after the halving.
For ease of reference to trendlines and Fibonacci retracement, here's the full chart:
Chart on the right: These are BTC prices in 3-month intervals from previous halvings, displayed in a table for easy viewing. Also my prediction for price RANGES for the upcoming halving. Note that it's displayed as a price but do give leverage for +-2K up or down.
Some additional details about the BTC halving:
🌐The BTC halving is a scheduled event that occurs every 210,000 blocks
🌐It's a built-in feature of the Bitcoin protocol that was designed to control the supply of Bitcoin.
🌐The halving reduces the block reward by half
🌐The block reward is currently 6.25 BTC
The halving of the block reward is a way to ensure that the supply of Bitcoin is limited. There will only ever be 21 million BTC, and the halving ensures that the supply of new BTC is gradually reduced over time. This makes Bitcoin a scarce asset, which is one of the reasons why it is so valuable, apart from the natural advantage of being first.
The halving of the block reward also has an impact on the difficulty of mining Bitcoin. The difficulty of mining is adjusted every 2,016 blocks to ensure that a new block is mined every 10 minutes on average. However, when the block reward is halved, the difficulty of mining is also halved. This means that miners need to spend more computing power to mine a block, which makes it more difficult to mine Bitcoin.
The halving of the block reward has a number of implications for Bitcoin. It helps to ensure that the supply of Bitcoin is limited, which makes it a scarce asset. It also makes Bitcoin more difficult to mine, which increases the cost of mining. However, the halving also increases the value of Bitcoin, as it makes it more scarce and difficult to obtain.
Now the data conclusions (on average, historically) of how the BTC halving has influenced the BTCUSD price:
6 MONTHS BEFORE
The price of BTC can start to increase in the months before the halving. This is likely due to anticipation of the event and the increased scarcity of BTC after the halving.
3 MONTHS BEFORE
The price of BTC tends to increase in the months leading up to the halving. This is likely due to anticipation of the event and the increased scarcity of BTC after the halving.
1 MONTH BEFORE
The price of BTC typically peaks in the month before the halving. This is likely due to the final frenzy of buying before the supply of new BTC is cut in half.
MONTH DURING HALVING
The price of BTC can be volatile in the month of the halving. This is because there is uncertainty about how the market will react to the event.
1 MONTH AFTER
The price of BTC typically starts to rise in the month after the halving. This is likely due to the increased scarcity of BTC and the anticipation of future price increases.
3 MONTHS AFTER
The price of BTC can continue to rise in the months after the halving. This is because the scarcity of BTC continues to increase and the market begins to realize the long-term implications of the halving.
6 MONTHS AFTER
The price of BTC can plateau or decline in the months after the halving. This is because the market may have already priced in the long-term implications of the halving.
NOTE that this isn't rule of thumb, it's a general trend based on the past halvings and there have been some exceptions. For example, the price of BTC didn't increase in the month before the halving in 2012.
IN CONCLUSION, overall, the BTC halving has a positive impact on the BTCUSD price. This is because the halving reduces the supply of new BTC, which increases the scarcity of BTC and drives up the price.
If you want to know more about the trends on altcoins during the BTC halving, there's some more info on it here:
Next up, I'll do a more in-depth post on the altcoin liquidity rotations around the BTC halving.
_______________________
📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍
We thank you for your support !
CryptoCheck
BTCUSDT
BTCUSD
Comment:
When you enlarge the righthand chart isn't displaying properly, let's try this:
Comment:
Looking at this range-bound price action for the short term:
Comment:
BTC at an important resistance zone:
