If you're following my profile, you use to see my chart as they are so neat and clear.. But this one is so different.. Because I made a complex analysis on BTC, so I'm trying to give all those information to you on the charts and the texts below, so let's focus together and start the analysis..
Before this analysis, As you can see on the chart in the red box area, I was getting ready for a bearish scenario for BTC and the correction to continue it's move to 28,500 - 30,600 or maybe deeper targets around 21,000. But some how I suddenly saw this triangle pattern on 4H chart. And it ruined all my previous analysis..
I believe this is a valid triangle because it has 3 touches on the bottom and 2 touches on the top.. The price has passed 60% of the triangle time-line pattern, so I'm waiting to see a breakout form top or maybe bottom..
Let's check out what is happening inside the triangle.. We have two bullish waves inside and the third one is starting. On the other side we have correction / bearish waves.. If you check the candle stick counts you can easily understand new buyers are coming to the BTC market inside the triangle, that cause the buyers to be more stronger that sellers.. So this emotional thinking can make us come to the conclusion that it is more possible for BTC to break the triangle upwards.. Don't forget this is not a valid signal!!! It's just a sign that buyers are getting stronger in the market..
Let's consider the last bearish wave in the triangle as a descending channel or a flag that it is trying to break the upper side of the flag in the time of writing this idea.. if this flag has a upward breakout, we will see a break out for the triangle on January 18 or 19. I've highlighted this area for you on the chart.. This will be an important moment.. If the breakout happens so strongly with high volume we can expect some retest on the upper side of the triangle as our new support area.. Then our new Bullish movement is begun..
I've drawn all the way the price will go on the chart with a green arrow, as you can see.. After the retest, as we spoke, our next main target will be 1 Fib extension area around 45,000$, Then I expect some corrections around previous ALL TIME HIGH around 41900.. I see this movement as a rally not a normal uptrend because of two reasons. Firstly, the previous bullish trend before the triangle was a rally. Secondly, Joe Biden is going to be the US president on January 20 and he has said that he will sign the aid checks for American people, these points will give me enough reasons to come this conclusion that the USD is going to fall in upcoming days and weeks and BTC is going to have an upward rally..
I have two more Targets for this BTC rally..
Triangle height from the breakout point.. I put the height line on the January 18 for now, That will give a target around 51,500$. But I will update this target when the actual breakout happened so don't worry about it..
My other target will be the 1.618 Fib level around 49,500$.. So I drew a green box are for you on the chart, That is showing this is a possible target for Bitcoin.. As I said, I believe in a rally up a head, The intersection of the green box area and the rally line copied from the previous trend line will be my estimated time for BTC to hit the area, That will be first quarter of February..
I'll update this chart and idea if anything new happens to the market in following days, so make sure you are following my profile, in that case you will not miss the updates..
I tried to explain the chart as simple as possible, But I may have missed some points. So feel free to ask any question if it comes to your mind or add any ideas you have in the comments section. I'll be glad to see new ideas.. This will make all of us more powerful together in TradingView Community..
Before this analysis, As you can see on the chart in the red box area, I was getting ready for a bearish scenario for BTC and the correction to continue it's move to 28,500 - 30,600 or maybe deeper targets around 21,000. But some how I suddenly saw this triangle pattern on 4H chart. And it ruined all my previous analysis..
I believe this is a valid triangle because it has 3 touches on the bottom and 2 touches on the top.. The price has passed 60% of the triangle time-line pattern, so I'm waiting to see a breakout form top or maybe bottom..
Let's check out what is happening inside the triangle.. We have two bullish waves inside and the third one is starting. On the other side we have correction / bearish waves.. If you check the candle stick counts you can easily understand new buyers are coming to the BTC market inside the triangle, that cause the buyers to be more stronger that sellers.. So this emotional thinking can make us come to the conclusion that it is more possible for BTC to break the triangle upwards.. Don't forget this is not a valid signal!!! It's just a sign that buyers are getting stronger in the market..
Let's consider the last bearish wave in the triangle as a descending channel or a flag that it is trying to break the upper side of the flag in the time of writing this idea.. if this flag has a upward breakout, we will see a break out for the triangle on January 18 or 19. I've highlighted this area for you on the chart.. This will be an important moment.. If the breakout happens so strongly with high volume we can expect some retest on the upper side of the triangle as our new support area.. Then our new Bullish movement is begun..
I've drawn all the way the price will go on the chart with a green arrow, as you can see.. After the retest, as we spoke, our next main target will be 1 Fib extension area around 45,000$, Then I expect some corrections around previous ALL TIME HIGH around 41900.. I see this movement as a rally not a normal uptrend because of two reasons. Firstly, the previous bullish trend before the triangle was a rally. Secondly, Joe Biden is going to be the US president on January 20 and he has said that he will sign the aid checks for American people, these points will give me enough reasons to come this conclusion that the USD is going to fall in upcoming days and weeks and BTC is going to have an upward rally..
I have two more Targets for this BTC rally..
Triangle height from the breakout point.. I put the height line on the January 18 for now, That will give a target around 51,500$. But I will update this target when the actual breakout happened so don't worry about it..
My other target will be the 1.618 Fib level around 49,500$.. So I drew a green box are for you on the chart, That is showing this is a possible target for Bitcoin.. As I said, I believe in a rally up a head, The intersection of the green box area and the rally line copied from the previous trend line will be my estimated time for BTC to hit the area, That will be first quarter of February..
I'll update this chart and idea if anything new happens to the market in following days, so make sure you are following my profile, in that case you will not miss the updates..
I tried to explain the chart as simple as possible, But I may have missed some points. So feel free to ask any question if it comes to your mind or add any ideas you have in the comments section. I'll be glad to see new ideas.. This will make all of us more powerful together in TradingView Community..
Comment:
I 1H chart I can see some kind of Head and Shoulder Pattern that it is activated now.. I share it here for you if this pattern reaches the target I can say RSI trend line in previous 4H chart will be broken.. stay focused in this movement of the market we can learn a lot of it..
Trade active:
Target on previous Head and Shoulder was hit..
I believe most of Technical signs give us a lot of downward pressure.. But Economic parameters and fundamental reasons as we spoke before has given us a clear vision upwards..
I believe most of Technical signs give us a lot of downward pressure.. But Economic parameters and fundamental reasons as we spoke before has given us a clear vision upwards..
There are a lot of Technical reasons for more bearish move.. Triangle breakout and the RSI trend line as you can see in the following chart.. plus I don't see any divergence so I believe we have more upcoming waves downward.. My second and third buying areas is going to be at 26000$ and 22000$..
But there is big BUT next to Technical Analysis, Joe Biden's fundamental reasons that can be the 1600$ aid check that he may sign in following weeks.. This fundamental reason can maybe so strong to turn the bearish trend to a bullish one.. We should wait and see how the market will react..