If BTC loses 39.5K support welcome to a bear market
Welcome to this analysis about BTC . Contrary to many analysts I don't think we are in a bear market and at the same time I don't share the opinion of others who think if BTC loses 39.5K level we are still in a bull market. Now I'm going to explain you why I think so. We are looking at the weekly timeframe perspective, the recent events, the established weekly market structure and some indicators. As I mentioned in my previous daily timeframe analysis BTC dropped to my last and main support area that is 39.5K September low and made double bottom . Due to many whales/FTX, Finex, Binance/ that united with the common cause to protect us from the crypto bears putting about 6,000 BTC buying order at 39.5-40K level. As you see BTC price rejected at support area with strong bounce. Based on this pattern and probabilities
In a bull market or in an uptrend price usually holds above 21 and 34 weekly EMA key averages or bounces back above them. But when things change and after ATH price pulls back to the mentioned moving averages bounces off and fails and drops back down again below the previous support , below the low that was made prior to the bounce/break market structure/. You can check history. After major peak in 2013, 2017 BTC made a pullback 21-34 weekly moving averages, then strong bounce from that level, then reversed and went below the low that was made prior to the bounce and broke market structure. It dumped more than 40% and entered to a bear market. The only warning sign that I'm cautious about is. Every time, in a bull market when BTC weekly fully candle closed below 50 MA BTC entered to a bear market. Last week it did so.
At this very moment, BTC needs to reclaim 21 weekly EMA and stay above bull market support band to become bullish and continue its mind blowing path to 100K+
As I can't post other images to show you history I will add them to my twitter account below this publication as a comment.
Thanks for your reading.
In a bull market or in an uptrend price usually holds above 21 and 34 weekly EMA key averages or bounces back above them. But when things change and after ATH price pulls back to the mentioned moving averages bounces off and fails and drops back down again below the previous support , below the low that was made prior to the bounce/break market structure/. You can check history. After major peak in 2013, 2017 BTC made a pullback 21-34 weekly moving averages, then strong bounce from that level, then reversed and went below the low that was made prior to the bounce and broke market structure. It dumped more than 40% and entered to a bear market. The only warning sign that I'm cautious about is. Every time, in a bull market when BTC weekly fully candle closed below 50 MA BTC entered to a bear market. Last week it did so.
At this very moment, BTC needs to reclaim 21 weekly EMA and stay above bull market support band to become bullish and continue its mind blowing path to 100K+
As I can't post other images to show you history I will add them to my twitter account below this publication as a comment.
Thanks for your reading.