Hello everyone, rouzwelt here
Here on the chart you can see the orange triangle formed which price has been respecting its boundaries relatively good except that little fake out. As price is reaching to the end of the triangle, the chance of seeing a breakout soon is increasing, as most of triangle patterns generally break at 60 -75% of their length and don't go all the way to the end. As of now price is at those general breakout area and is also sitting on the bottom line of the triangle, so technically, it has a great chance of breaking-down and completing the potential bear-flag formation. This is the most probable outcome right now if you look at the chart in classic TA perspective.
But that's not all, in fact that little fake out can indicate that the potential bear-flag may not be a triangle but a rectangle, as I have drawn it in the chart with dotted orange line, so if that is case then there's no ending point like a triangle flag, the ending point comes whenever the breakout happens, so if we extend the rectangle to the right side it will reach the main blue down-trend line. As you can see the price has already bounced twice from that blue trend line and as it moves inside the rectangle we can expect that it will bounce to the down side again when it reaches the trend line, as I believe the blue down-trend is a strong dynamic resistance and I will become bullish again if only bitcoin manages to break above it, but that doesn't seem to be a likely scenario at this moment with current information and sentiment in the market, but it still has almost 30 - 40 days to reach that point if we assume this scenario, in fact a lot of things can happen till then so we better analyze the strengths of the market at that point to see whether bitcoin can break above the trend line or not.
In my opinion, the most possible bullish price action at this moment and with current data, in pure TA perspective, is that price stays in the orange rectangle (30- 40k range) longer and builds a solid base in this range (the longer the better). It would give the chance for market participants to start accumulate and the sentiment to slowly change and bring back the lost interests. But any higher volatility is actually more bearish, even if it's to the up side, as it would just be a temporary reaction without much power.
Now let's take a look at the hourly timeframe. As you can see in the screenshot of my last post below (Link:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/OOrxsYBA-BITCOIN-Move-Your-Lazy-Ass/), I have projected the probable price action in my last post and so far it is playing out with good accuracy. I believe if a break-down is going to happen then right now is the best time for it, as in TA perspective, we have all the requirements, we see lack of volume at impulse moves up which indicates the lack of demand, higher volume at impulse moves down, which indicates more supply coming in, price is near the critical support level and have not bounced sharply like it did few times before, price has not been able to print any local higher high for past few days and is now at 60-75% of the triangle formation and we don't see bullish news having any meaningful impact, so it a good opportunity for bears to make their move. But let me say here that anyone can extract their own favorite signals from the chart and market, anyone can find reason to believe its bearish or bullish, but one must look at both possible directions and manage his/her risk based on the worst possible outcome for him/her, after all risk management is the most important and practical tool a trader has.
At last for those who are following my last trade, I should note that my short trade is still open at 32850, and I'm planing to move my SL to entry and take 30% profit whenever price reaches the 5% of my entry point.
If you've found something useful in this post then consider supporting me by hitting like and comment if have any opinion about my analysis and as always have fun and trade safe.
Here on the chart you can see the orange triangle formed which price has been respecting its boundaries relatively good except that little fake out. As price is reaching to the end of the triangle, the chance of seeing a breakout soon is increasing, as most of triangle patterns generally break at 60 -75% of their length and don't go all the way to the end. As of now price is at those general breakout area and is also sitting on the bottom line of the triangle, so technically, it has a great chance of breaking-down and completing the potential bear-flag formation. This is the most probable outcome right now if you look at the chart in classic TA perspective.
But that's not all, in fact that little fake out can indicate that the potential bear-flag may not be a triangle but a rectangle, as I have drawn it in the chart with dotted orange line, so if that is case then there's no ending point like a triangle flag, the ending point comes whenever the breakout happens, so if we extend the rectangle to the right side it will reach the main blue down-trend line. As you can see the price has already bounced twice from that blue trend line and as it moves inside the rectangle we can expect that it will bounce to the down side again when it reaches the trend line, as I believe the blue down-trend is a strong dynamic resistance and I will become bullish again if only bitcoin manages to break above it, but that doesn't seem to be a likely scenario at this moment with current information and sentiment in the market, but it still has almost 30 - 40 days to reach that point if we assume this scenario, in fact a lot of things can happen till then so we better analyze the strengths of the market at that point to see whether bitcoin can break above the trend line or not.
In my opinion, the most possible bullish price action at this moment and with current data, in pure TA perspective, is that price stays in the orange rectangle (30- 40k range) longer and builds a solid base in this range (the longer the better). It would give the chance for market participants to start accumulate and the sentiment to slowly change and bring back the lost interests. But any higher volatility is actually more bearish, even if it's to the up side, as it would just be a temporary reaction without much power.
Now let's take a look at the hourly timeframe. As you can see in the screenshot of my last post below (Link:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/OOrxsYBA-BITCOIN-Move-Your-Lazy-Ass/), I have projected the probable price action in my last post and so far it is playing out with good accuracy. I believe if a break-down is going to happen then right now is the best time for it, as in TA perspective, we have all the requirements, we see lack of volume at impulse moves up which indicates the lack of demand, higher volume at impulse moves down, which indicates more supply coming in, price is near the critical support level and have not bounced sharply like it did few times before, price has not been able to print any local higher high for past few days and is now at 60-75% of the triangle formation and we don't see bullish news having any meaningful impact, so it a good opportunity for bears to make their move. But let me say here that anyone can extract their own favorite signals from the chart and market, anyone can find reason to believe its bearish or bullish, but one must look at both possible directions and manage his/her risk based on the worst possible outcome for him/her, after all risk management is the most important and practical tool a trader has.
At last for those who are following my last trade, I should note that my short trade is still open at 32850, and I'm planing to move my SL to entry and take 30% profit whenever price reaches the 5% of my entry point.
If you've found something useful in this post then consider supporting me by hitting like and comment if have any opinion about my analysis and as always have fun and trade safe.
