oh92
Education

Model of Economic Bubbles

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
A replicated model of "Economic Bubbles" by Jean-Paul Rodrigue which I overlaid onto the BTCUSD             -13.83% chart.

Terrifying resemblance considering this this model was created in 2008.

What stage do you believe we are in?

I do not believe this is the end of crypto.
However, I do advise everyone to keep an open mind, and to trade carefully.


I wish you all the best of luck.

Source:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4b/Stages_of_a_bubble.png
Comment:
Comment: Here is an interesting way to correlate the 2014 market crash to the current market conditions.
IF this holds true, it is a possible route we could take strictly based off correlation.
suck a dick haha
+1 Reply
Hello i agree with you that this is not standart market behavior. BUT on this strong uptrend you can find strong volume cluster where you can earn nice money... Just look here :
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Highly doubt we are that early in the cycle, further the cycle will not be as long this time time-wise. Just looking at the chart I'd say we are at the big M before your "possible bottom" which would mean we have a huge capitulation crash coming...then reaction...then a relative cycle of long consolidation with lots of false break outs/frustration like 2014, but again should be quicker. Just my take, the fundamentals now compared to then are insanely different. People are not going to get another chance at the price being so low for so long where they get to stock up on cheap coins...markets are simply not that accommodating.
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Typically the style of one bear market to the next is not the same. The 2014 bear was deep, but it also took a long time for the correction to end. Usually when you have a sideways bear (again, I only consider 2014 "sideways" because of the length of time it took to correct) it is followed by a bear market that is "steep" in nature. I do not dispute your ultimate target of sub-$3,000, I only think it could happen much quicker than your chart suggest. We could make it there by as early as mid-summer and be moving sideways-to-higher again by year end.
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2k-4k bottom, then trade sideways.
+1 Reply
I would say BTC won't return to pre-segwit levels under 5k. And we are at 1st sell off since wider public didn't really didn't get in yet - 2% max and that's quite optimistic
+2 Reply
jarederaj r.balejik
Reply
please update. isit following again?
Reply
yeah but we started at 0 not 600.
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BagaTrading BagaTrading
@BagaTrading, Not a big diff. but still...I too see bitcoin falling to its biggest support @~1k. give everyone a haircut
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