BINANCE:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / TetherUS
We should take into the consideration the current wave formation. There are are literally countless ways to interpret it, but I will try to think of reasonable scenarios.

1 - Current wave is a B in ABC formation.
If that is correct then it would cause another big wave down to sub 20k. I don't think it is probable.

2 - Current wave is Wave 1 in a new cycle

If it is correct then:
Wave 1 might be completed with small 5th and bigger correction might be possible to the major support at 40-42k or even in an area of a TR or lower support. (wave one can retrace up to 100% of the original move. Even if this scenario is possible, I don't think it is probable after such a strong impulse. Furthermore it is 50% retracement from large move down - quite heavy resistance so it is also possible that the correction will take place as a trading range for a while. (it means altcoins will perform better)

If wave 1 is not complete and sub-wave 5 is still in formation, which might lead to 50-52k before larger correction. It would coincide with a measured move from impulse sub-wave 1 and also 0.618 fib levels.

This is all part of hypothesis 2.


There are also other 3 possible hypotheses for bitcoin price action.

1 - Price will continue to go up within the bull channel for extended period of time. I think it is less probable.

3 - It will ignore closest major support and retrace all the way down to 30k or somewhere in between 30-40k (trading range square) before bouncing up.

4 - Price will decide that latest impulse was in fact a B in ABC correction and will continue to go down towards 20k levels.

Another way to look at it if it is actually a wave 3 in 5 wave cycle (if cycle started at the lowest point of the structure (marked red). However I would prefer the start from the wedge bottom, as the last wave of the correction might be truncated (couldn't breach the bottom). Anyway, if the strong impulse is wave 3 and it is completed or even if not (5th wave is in formation), then possible positive scenarios (blue arrows) are the same as if it is wave 1.
Red arrows here are not possible as it would negate the 5wave structure at this point (correctional wave 4 is cant reach impulse wave 1).

The major thing that differs from original hypothesis 2, that this wave 3 can possibly extend and have an enormously strong impulse up (for example back to all time highs.

I think hypothesis 2 has most probability, because going down by retracing 100% after such a strong impulse move is unlikely. Bears simply are not strong enough after such strong upside. Furthermore I think that there is a bigger chance, that ABC has already formed and bottom at 30k is set.

In a short term we might see some trading range or down action, but medium term I would be LONG, nevertheless also evaluating other scenarios if price action would go in the 'not probable' zone.

Comments

it's not logarithmic, is it ?
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