Entered short on 25 April 2014. H&S formation confirmed with 18MA crossing the 50MA. Funds just started adding shorts at this point. Currently short term oversold, we could see some bounce. First target would be 2778. Typical seasonal low is in late May - early June based on 5yr / 25yr historical pattern.
The cocoa market is nested just under the $3,000 mark and seems ready to roll over to the downside. Classic H&S is forming. I'm considering shorts at the current level (2970) and at the neckline. Targeting 2778 or lower. Commercial traders have cumulated significant short positions. Seasonal tendency is to bottom in June.