Could Oil be giving us an early warning sign?
This is the monthly chart of CL futures.
Will history repeat itself? Back in April of 2000 CL set off a monthly bearish spike alert and around that same timeperiod NQ & ES made there last ATH's until Sept 2016 & April 2013 respectively. The long term non-horizontal monthly trend lines (blue lines) also look eerily similar. The blue lines run along the monthly candle "bodies" after making ATH's and you can see they both break out on the 3rd hit of the blue line. I know, I know...this time is different but is it? Only time will tell if this is really "a clue". All I know is that I'm going to be on high alert to see if the ES can break out on the monthly from its Jan 2022 ATH at 4,808. Remember, most market tops before a longer term bearish trend takes over could take 3-6 months of consolidation before breaking to the downside so there is no reason to short the market at this point as the market is still overall bullish and has not given us any signs of slowing.
Another possible similarity...NQ's high in March of 2000 was 4,884, ES is currently at 4,808. NQ didn't make it to 5,000 until Jan 2017. Will the market give us the same sort of rejection to this number this time around?
This analysis is purely visual with the help of spike alerts created by @norok
Will history repeat itself? Back in April of 2000 CL set off a monthly bearish spike alert and around that same timeperiod NQ & ES made there last ATH's until Sept 2016 & April 2013 respectively. The long term non-horizontal monthly trend lines (blue lines) also look eerily similar. The blue lines run along the monthly candle "bodies" after making ATH's and you can see they both break out on the 3rd hit of the blue line. I know, I know...this time is different but is it? Only time will tell if this is really "a clue". All I know is that I'm going to be on high alert to see if the ES can break out on the monthly from its Jan 2022 ATH at 4,808. Remember, most market tops before a longer term bearish trend takes over could take 3-6 months of consolidation before breaking to the downside so there is no reason to short the market at this point as the market is still overall bullish and has not given us any signs of slowing.
Another possible similarity...NQ's high in March of 2000 was 4,884, ES is currently at 4,808. NQ didn't make it to 5,000 until Jan 2017. Will the market give us the same sort of rejection to this number this time around?
This analysis is purely visual with the help of spike alerts created by @norok
Comment:
Something different is playing out with Oil...we are now above the red plus mark and today (Feb 4th) on the daily & weekly it looks very bullish and will most likely get to $100 soon.