China Tech (CQQQ) has been in a massive bull channel for 8 years. Every 25% drop or more has been a buying opportunity.
Will it be the case this time? Higher rates in the US with a stronger $ are typically bad for Emerging markets. Is China still
an emerging economy is debatable, but my view is higher rates in US attracts $s leaving other economies fighting for
$ reserves.
In the late 90s higher rates in the US caused an Asian currency crisis. Will it this time? Time will tell. But it is something
to keep an eye on. Recently Hainan group in China filed for bankruptcy, (barely made the news), now Nomura Holdings
in Japan warned it might blow up, and a US hedge fund blow up (not related to Asia as far as I know) and several large
banks coming out saying they are protected from the NMR disaster.
From a charting perspective, there is still nothing there for us to sink our teeth in for the bullish case that this too
shall pass. As long as CQQQ remains in this 8-year bull channel, the bias remains to the upside. My ideal preference
would be the mid $50s for a nice buying opportunity. Alternatively a move above the 63 day MA with falling US 10 yr rate
Will it be the case this time? Higher rates in the US with a stronger $ are typically bad for Emerging markets. Is China still
an emerging economy is debatable, but my view is higher rates in US attracts $s leaving other economies fighting for
$ reserves.
In the late 90s higher rates in the US caused an Asian currency crisis. Will it this time? Time will tell. But it is something
to keep an eye on. Recently Hainan group in China filed for bankruptcy, (barely made the news), now Nomura Holdings
in Japan warned it might blow up, and a US hedge fund blow up (not related to Asia as far as I know) and several large
banks coming out saying they are protected from the NMR disaster.
From a charting perspective, there is still nothing there for us to sink our teeth in for the bullish case that this too
shall pass. As long as CQQQ remains in this 8-year bull channel, the bias remains to the upside. My ideal preference
would be the mid $50s for a nice buying opportunity. Alternatively a move above the 63 day MA with falling US 10 yr rate
Real Macro Economic Investing
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