a daily price action after hour update - dax
Good evening and i hope you are well.
If you follow the dax and maybe some German economic indicators or listen to the German word on the street, you are probably wondering how on earth this market can go higher and print daily new ath’s. Welp, all traders see it's overbought but it still keeps going up. This is absolutely the blow off top and the end of this move and it will soon be over. I have zero doubt about it and we will see at least -30% this year. Feel free to rub it in my face when i have been wrong at the end of the year. Most other indexes are ranging at the highs and bulls are still in btfd mode. Don't over commit to shorts and play the range.
Quote from my weekend outlook:
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
bull case: Not much to add here. Until we see higher selling pressure and stop making new daily all time highs, the music will continue. Next time profit taking starts, we will see a -2% / -3% day.
bear case: Just nothing. All red bars are probably from bulls taking profits and not bears shorting. 17530 is the first bear target.
short term: btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up. i am neutral here and scalp only long until bears show strength
medium-long term: strong break above everything with follow through, can’t deny higher prices and no one knows when the squeeze will end. still waiting for the monthly close to give new targets. i’m still holding long term dax shorts which are obviously deep deep red.
trade of the day: just a relentless bull trend from the open. no reason anywhere to exit longs
If you follow the dax and maybe some German economic indicators or listen to the German word on the street, you are probably wondering how on earth this market can go higher and print daily new ath’s. Welp, all traders see it's overbought but it still keeps going up. This is absolutely the blow off top and the end of this move and it will soon be over. I have zero doubt about it and we will see at least -30% this year. Feel free to rub it in my face when i have been wrong at the end of the year. Most other indexes are ranging at the highs and bulls are still in btfd mode. Don't over commit to shorts and play the range.
Quote from my weekend outlook:
bull case: Bulls closed the week very bullish and even if all targets are met and they are at multiple upper trend lines, they can just continue the pump, there is no denying that. I know i keep repeating myself. Risk reward for buying up here is bad but if there is no selling pressure, the probability is on the bull side and every trade is a trade-off between risk, reward and probability. Next target for bulls can be 17500, 18000.
bull case: Not much to add here. Until we see higher selling pressure and stop making new daily all time highs, the music will continue. Next time profit taking starts, we will see a -2% / -3% day.
bear case: Just nothing. All red bars are probably from bulls taking profits and not bears shorting. 17530 is the first bear target.
short term: btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up. i am neutral here and scalp only long until bears show strength
medium-long term: strong break above everything with follow through, can’t deny higher prices and no one knows when the squeeze will end. still waiting for the monthly close to give new targets. i’m still holding long term dax shorts which are obviously deep deep red.
trade of the day: just a relentless bull trend from the open. no reason anywhere to exit longs