Here we come again with extraodinary forecast, as usual. We update our long-term view on DAX 30 Index.
Our last year suggestion was a large pattern. But it had one weak moment - Dow Jones has not completed all time extension target, while all other major indexes, such as DAX , NASDAQ already have done it.
We've made a forecast on DJIA few months ago that it should reach new highs before collapse. Now we see that DAX price behavior also has changed.
Although our minor pattern has worked perfet and DAX has completed it 1.618 ultimate target around 10300 lows, but price has not dropped more and not reached the neckline of large pattern, but turned up instead.
This is irrational action for any pattern and it makes us deny it. Another reason, DAX has climbed above the neckline of first, minor , which is also not normal for market.
Combining DAX price action and DJIA forecast, it seems that we could get huge "Sell" with 14500 potential reversal point...
I think that SMA20 is the target on a monthly basis and at the same time a resistance. The question is if he can correct 62% Fib at all (Mai?).
In addition, the bearish cross Tenkan-Kijun is still active.
If I am correct then after that the SMA 100 should be targeted.... as a first target down... on a monthly basis... in the medium term.
He will probably fall even lower. In that case my focus is @ 9451.