Hey everyone,
As I said and requested, here is my analysis on the DOW.
The DOW (DIA) and the Russel (IWM) are actually the most bullish looking stocks, at least as far as math and probs are concerned. Lots of bullishness is just being thrown in our faces here.
Let me break down the probabilities by index so you can just see this visually. The chart below shows the probability of the 3 indices (SPY, DIA and IWM) hitting either their first bull target or their first bear target:
So let's recap:
First off, we have a very clear breakout and hold from the qualitative regression downtrend. This is a traditionally bullish happening.
As with SPY, we have hit the second real time monthly bear target and on Friday we hit the first, real time (RTT) monthly high target at 337.79.
The next RTT is 341 followed by the third at 345.
While I was super focused on the numbers and the regression trend, I missed something that may have been obvious had I been paying closer attention:
This seems to, at this for right now, be following through.
Analysis:
So what can we expect next week?
DIA is yet to be put into Python for auto calculation of probs, so I had to do it manually and I forgot how much of a nerd I am. I love writing out math stuff haha. Anyway, our prospective targets are:
Bull:
1. 339.08 (50% prob)
2. 341.66 (6.1% prob)
3. 344.24 (<0.50% prob)
Bear
1.335.29 (38% prob)
2. 331.92 (0.3% prob)
3. 328.55 (<0.3% prob)
Technicals:
Unlike with SPY, Buyers have remain consistent. DIA is a little bit lower volume that SPY and can really signal a bit better what the buyer/seller sentiment is. So let's take a look at the buyer to seller ratio chart. And let's look at it YTD over the weekly.
And just for fun lets compare buyers to sellers on SPY vs DIA YTD:
Not sure if this is helpful, but I find it interesting haha.
For Monday, the technicals are erring on the bullish side. The targets are as follows:
Bull:
1. 337.51
2. 338.89
3. 340.27
Bear:
1. 336.29
2. 334.68
3. 333.07
So I think that concludes everything.
As always, leave your questions and comments and criticisms below!
Have a great weekend everyone!
As I said and requested, here is my analysis on the DOW.
The DOW (DIA) and the Russel (IWM) are actually the most bullish looking stocks, at least as far as math and probs are concerned. Lots of bullishness is just being thrown in our faces here.
Let me break down the probabilities by index so you can just see this visually. The chart below shows the probability of the 3 indices (SPY, DIA and IWM) hitting either their first bull target or their first bear target:
So let's recap:
First off, we have a very clear breakout and hold from the qualitative regression downtrend. This is a traditionally bullish happening.
As with SPY, we have hit the second real time monthly bear target and on Friday we hit the first, real time (RTT) monthly high target at 337.79.
The next RTT is 341 followed by the third at 345.
While I was super focused on the numbers and the regression trend, I missed something that may have been obvious had I been paying closer attention:
This seems to, at this for right now, be following through.
Analysis:
So what can we expect next week?
DIA is yet to be put into Python for auto calculation of probs, so I had to do it manually and I forgot how much of a nerd I am. I love writing out math stuff haha. Anyway, our prospective targets are:
Bull:
1. 339.08 (50% prob)
2. 341.66 (6.1% prob)
3. 344.24 (<0.50% prob)
Bear
1.335.29 (38% prob)
2. 331.92 (0.3% prob)
3. 328.55 (<0.3% prob)
Technicals:
Unlike with SPY, Buyers have remain consistent. DIA is a little bit lower volume that SPY and can really signal a bit better what the buyer/seller sentiment is. So let's take a look at the buyer to seller ratio chart. And let's look at it YTD over the weekly.
And just for fun lets compare buyers to sellers on SPY vs DIA YTD:
Not sure if this is helpful, but I find it interesting haha.
For Monday, the technicals are erring on the bullish side. The targets are as follows:
Bull:
1. 337.51
2. 338.89
3. 340.27
Bear:
1. 336.29
2. 334.68
3. 333.07
So I think that concludes everything.
As always, leave your questions and comments and criticisms below!
Have a great weekend everyone!
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