I know, me again.
This will be my last post for the weekend on SPY. I promise. I do want to do a post on DIA but whether that comes to fruition is yet to be seen. Perhaps if you are interested in DIA, leave a comment about it and it may give me more motivation to post it haha.
Anyway, I started posting originally as a way of journaling and planning. People just seemed to care about what I had to say and now it turned into something that I really enjoy doing and enjoy interacting and meeting many of you. Tradingview is a really awesome community, so thank you to everyone for your support, curiosity, questions and comments! They are all appreciated, even if you call me out as an idiot :P. Those are usually the best because, you know, I can be for sure and when it happens I need to be put in my place.
But in respect of the original purpose of posting, I am going to do a little reflection. I ended up stopping out of my short position on the S&P and the Dow as my stop limit was reached.
I am not going to stress the importance of stop outs and cutting losses, because enough people on here lecture us all about it and chances are you know. Whether you actually abide by your stops or not is probably the question, but regardless of what you do, you already likely know that stops are necessary.
Despite the massive loss I sustained, it is really just a relief to get it over with. Its like, ripping the band-aid off. Just take a deep breath, relax, close your eyes and press that dreaded “Market Sell” button.
Boom.
Done.
No matter the losses, whether they be big or small, they suck. But it is, at the end of the day, a huge relief. Like the nightmare is over. Like the feeling you get on a bad, turbulent plane ride or after completing a haunted hayride for Halloween (my fav pastime in October), you have emotions of thrill and regret, but an overwhelming relief that its over. And, in the words of Shakespeare, ‘this too shall pass’.
Its even more frustrating when you are relatively sure that your thesis is correct. But if you remember that joke I shared with you a little while ago that went something like:
Who can be wrong 90% of the time and still make money?
Answer: A meteorologist.
Who can be right 100% of the time and still lose money?
Answer: A trader…
Yeah… that comes into play here.
The silver lining is that I was able to day trade myself out of the losses and still finish the day with a profit by trading IWM and SPY. There were amazing setups today and the market traded pretty straight-forwarded.
But what is more important is that I am going into next week fresh, unbiased and unburdened. Despite how unbiased and objective you try to be, when you have a sinking position going against you, you are constantly finding reasons for you to stay in it and it can cloud your judgement too much. Its possible and doable and it’s a requirement for those who are full-time swing traders. But it takes a lot detachment and its not easy.
I learned from this position that I don’t do well when I have a position going against me and I tend to panic. I panic added into my position and approached the situation much too cavalier. At the end of the day, I did stick to my stop loss, but yeah it could have been handled much better. Like don’t add. Don’t panic. And just stick to your stops. Thankfully I managed to stick to my stop, but the panic is real and difficult to manage. So something I need to work on. I don’t swing frequently and when I have swung, it has always been massive gains. This was the first time I swung and completely missed the boat. This was just a disaster and pride and ego took over.
I also realized that I am a much better day trader than swing trader. For whatever reason I tend to emotionally handle day trades much better than I handle swing trades.
Anyway, enough about me. Let’s get into the analysis. I am going to hold myself to this no bias and objective approach. So I am going to present the data as is, and hold off my opinions on anything.
I posted an idea on SPY for a longer term outlook. To add to that idea, as of right now, SPY remains within this downtrend. This is manifested by continued statistical significance. Until this is diminished, the downtrend thesis, at least for me, will prevail. Thus, I do expect more selling to happen. But check out that idea for more info and details. Otherwise, let us look at what to expect immediately next week.
SPY ANALYSIS:
So, on the qualitative regression trend, SPY is right at resistance. Will we see rejection back down?
Maybe not. At least, maybe not right away.
If we look at it more closely, we see it closed outside of the trend:
This is pretty bullish. Just so much bullishness everywhere. Don’t we love it?
It definitely is…. Interesting. But let’s take a look at some of the technicals:
Our stochastics saw quite a jump from 33.77 to 70.15. RSI is up to 41.86 and Zscore up to 1.10. We did see an increase in buyers, but the buyer increase was marginal. Last week we had 9% increase in buyers and this week we had around an 8.6% increase in buyers.
We have seen a steady decline of buyers since July. Below is the buy to sell ratio on the weekly from May till this past week:
You can see a steady decline of buyers.
Stochastics are in a very bullish area, however RSI and buyers are not so bullish. Cumulatively, probabilities seem to be mixed (more on that below).
So our prospective targets for next week are as such:
Bull:
1. 402.11
2. 404.78
3. 407.45
Bear:
1. 392.03
2. 388.51
3. 384.99
Probabilities are pretty mixed, there is quite a high chance of seeing 402 and 392. These are the two most favoured targets. I decided to put the probs into a bar chart for visual representation. You can see this below:
We have also reached our first real time monthly high target today (Friday):
Putting us in one of those rare months where we see both real time high and low targets. However, as we hit the second real time monthly low target, this does, alone, reduce our odds of hitting the second real time monthly high target (at 401.75).
Without correct for anything, the real time monthly high is hit around 48% of the time. When we correct for already reaching the real time second low, the probability we hit it is 13%.
There is also a lot of momentum; however, as we have yet to really see any meaningful increase in buyers, we have to be careful about relying on this momentum lasting.
SPY on the Daily
For Monday, it does seem that SPY does favour some pullback. Your intra-day prospective targets are:
Bull:
1. 399.72 (26% prob)
2. 401.16 (0.51% prob)
3. 402.60 (<0.5% prob)
Bear
1. 397.64 (35% prob)
2. 395.92 (0.49% prob)
3. 394.20 (<0.40% prob)
I want to be unbiased so I don’t want to talk too much about patterns, as they are really subjective. But this seems to be the predominate chart pattern that I can see on SPY:
Wisdom tells us this is bearish maybe…
Anyway, that concludes my analysis for SPY next week.
Let me know what you think!
As always, leave your comments below!
Trade safe everyone and take care!
This will be my last post for the weekend on SPY. I promise. I do want to do a post on DIA but whether that comes to fruition is yet to be seen. Perhaps if you are interested in DIA, leave a comment about it and it may give me more motivation to post it haha.
Anyway, I started posting originally as a way of journaling and planning. People just seemed to care about what I had to say and now it turned into something that I really enjoy doing and enjoy interacting and meeting many of you. Tradingview is a really awesome community, so thank you to everyone for your support, curiosity, questions and comments! They are all appreciated, even if you call me out as an idiot :P. Those are usually the best because, you know, I can be for sure and when it happens I need to be put in my place.
But in respect of the original purpose of posting, I am going to do a little reflection. I ended up stopping out of my short position on the S&P and the Dow as my stop limit was reached.
I am not going to stress the importance of stop outs and cutting losses, because enough people on here lecture us all about it and chances are you know. Whether you actually abide by your stops or not is probably the question, but regardless of what you do, you already likely know that stops are necessary.
Despite the massive loss I sustained, it is really just a relief to get it over with. Its like, ripping the band-aid off. Just take a deep breath, relax, close your eyes and press that dreaded “Market Sell” button.
Boom.
Done.
No matter the losses, whether they be big or small, they suck. But it is, at the end of the day, a huge relief. Like the nightmare is over. Like the feeling you get on a bad, turbulent plane ride or after completing a haunted hayride for Halloween (my fav pastime in October), you have emotions of thrill and regret, but an overwhelming relief that its over. And, in the words of Shakespeare, ‘this too shall pass’.
Its even more frustrating when you are relatively sure that your thesis is correct. But if you remember that joke I shared with you a little while ago that went something like:
Who can be wrong 90% of the time and still make money?
Answer: A meteorologist.
Who can be right 100% of the time and still lose money?
Answer: A trader…
Yeah… that comes into play here.
The silver lining is that I was able to day trade myself out of the losses and still finish the day with a profit by trading IWM and SPY. There were amazing setups today and the market traded pretty straight-forwarded.
But what is more important is that I am going into next week fresh, unbiased and unburdened. Despite how unbiased and objective you try to be, when you have a sinking position going against you, you are constantly finding reasons for you to stay in it and it can cloud your judgement too much. Its possible and doable and it’s a requirement for those who are full-time swing traders. But it takes a lot detachment and its not easy.
I learned from this position that I don’t do well when I have a position going against me and I tend to panic. I panic added into my position and approached the situation much too cavalier. At the end of the day, I did stick to my stop loss, but yeah it could have been handled much better. Like don’t add. Don’t panic. And just stick to your stops. Thankfully I managed to stick to my stop, but the panic is real and difficult to manage. So something I need to work on. I don’t swing frequently and when I have swung, it has always been massive gains. This was the first time I swung and completely missed the boat. This was just a disaster and pride and ego took over.
I also realized that I am a much better day trader than swing trader. For whatever reason I tend to emotionally handle day trades much better than I handle swing trades.
Anyway, enough about me. Let’s get into the analysis. I am going to hold myself to this no bias and objective approach. So I am going to present the data as is, and hold off my opinions on anything.
I posted an idea on SPY for a longer term outlook. To add to that idea, as of right now, SPY remains within this downtrend. This is manifested by continued statistical significance. Until this is diminished, the downtrend thesis, at least for me, will prevail. Thus, I do expect more selling to happen. But check out that idea for more info and details. Otherwise, let us look at what to expect immediately next week.
SPY ANALYSIS:
So, on the qualitative regression trend, SPY is right at resistance. Will we see rejection back down?
Maybe not. At least, maybe not right away.
If we look at it more closely, we see it closed outside of the trend:
This is pretty bullish. Just so much bullishness everywhere. Don’t we love it?
It definitely is…. Interesting. But let’s take a look at some of the technicals:
Our stochastics saw quite a jump from 33.77 to 70.15. RSI is up to 41.86 and Zscore up to 1.10. We did see an increase in buyers, but the buyer increase was marginal. Last week we had 9% increase in buyers and this week we had around an 8.6% increase in buyers.
We have seen a steady decline of buyers since July. Below is the buy to sell ratio on the weekly from May till this past week:
You can see a steady decline of buyers.
Stochastics are in a very bullish area, however RSI and buyers are not so bullish. Cumulatively, probabilities seem to be mixed (more on that below).
So our prospective targets for next week are as such:
Bull:
1. 402.11
2. 404.78
3. 407.45
Bear:
1. 392.03
2. 388.51
3. 384.99
Probabilities are pretty mixed, there is quite a high chance of seeing 402 and 392. These are the two most favoured targets. I decided to put the probs into a bar chart for visual representation. You can see this below:
We have also reached our first real time monthly high target today (Friday):
Putting us in one of those rare months where we see both real time high and low targets. However, as we hit the second real time monthly low target, this does, alone, reduce our odds of hitting the second real time monthly high target (at 401.75).
Without correct for anything, the real time monthly high is hit around 48% of the time. When we correct for already reaching the real time second low, the probability we hit it is 13%.
There is also a lot of momentum; however, as we have yet to really see any meaningful increase in buyers, we have to be careful about relying on this momentum lasting.
SPY on the Daily
For Monday, it does seem that SPY does favour some pullback. Your intra-day prospective targets are:
Bull:
1. 399.72 (26% prob)
2. 401.16 (0.51% prob)
3. 402.60 (<0.5% prob)
Bear
1. 397.64 (35% prob)
2. 395.92 (0.49% prob)
3. 394.20 (<0.40% prob)
I want to be unbiased so I don’t want to talk too much about patterns, as they are really subjective. But this seems to be the predominate chart pattern that I can see on SPY:
Wisdom tells us this is bearish maybe…
Anyway, that concludes my analysis for SPY next week.
Let me know what you think!
As always, leave your comments below!
Trade safe everyone and take care!
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