Hey,
Thought I'd jump in to mention about that pretty wild close we had today and share what the math sort of points out based on Today's PA.
Quickly, just a recap of the previous ideas, our weekly SPY targets were as such:
Bull:
1. 402.11
2. 404.78
3. 407.45
Bear:
1. 392.03
2. 388.51
3. 384.99
And our weekly DIA targets were:
Bull:
1. 339.08 (50% prob)
2. 341.66 (6.1% prob)
3. 344.24 (<0.50% prob)
Bear
1.335.29 (38% prob)
2. 331.92 (0.3% prob)
3. 328.55 (<0.3% prob)
Probability only very slightly favoured 392.03 more than 402 on SPY and probability clearly favoured 339.08 more on DIA than 335.29.
We reached the first Bull target on DIA but not on SPY.
400 is quite the psychological level for SPY that it has traditionally struggled with. I thought today for sure it would burst through it and just go right for 402 but it did not.
However, based on that massive rejection we saw leading into close and based on the real time math projections, here is what we know, what I see, what we can assume and what to look out for.
What we know:
- 400 was rejected
- DIA touched its first real time weekly high level and rejected (see chart below):
- SPY avoided reaching its first weekly prospective target (402) and its first real time weekly high level (see main chart above)
- The weekly guaranteed target (the target the math calculates each week that is hit 99% of the time) is trailing far below the PA on both SPY and DIA.
It is the yellow line you see in the SPY and DIA chart. The levels are:
SPY: 393.97
DIA: 335.33
- Volume was low and if you read my last idea, you know that we are haemorrhaging buyers. The chart is repeated below for your convenience:
What I see:
I pointed it out in the last idea, but I do see a giant wedge on SPY and DIA, with a breakdown today, really noticeable on DIA:
I also notice that, on the 1 hour, SPY left us on a sort of bear flag:
- Traditionally, in the past, when DIA rejects its first RT weekly high level and has its guarenteed target below PA, it leads to a bearish week. Let's look at a chart as an example. This is where DIA is currently:
And here is a similar setup from some weeks ago:
What we can assume:
This is what we can assume based on statistics or market customs. But they are not necessarily ALWAYS valid.
- Traditionally, SPY does not like to touch its prospective bull targets (in this case 402, 404 and 407) if its going to reach its prospective bear targets (this week they are 392, 388, 384). This is an observation and not a rule, but its a persuasive custom that SPY generally follows under normal circumstances.
- The same is said for the Real time targets on SPY. If it doesn't have an interest in being bullish, it will tend to avoid the real time high targets and head straight for thee low targets (shown in the main chart above).
What to look out for:
- We can anticipate touching those yellow targets probably by tomorrow.
- I think its too early to convert 100% bearish. While this PA is damming, the PA leading into CPI was pretty damming too and it was a rug pull.
- We want to see SPY make contact with its first, RT monthly low target at 390.25 AND NOT REJECT to really solidify a bearish thesis.
- We want to ensure that SPY and DIA are not going to bounce off their 99% target and go back up, which has been known to happen:
- We also need to be aware of the multiple catalysts this week that can make the market do whatever it has on its mind. Whether that be selling or bullishness, its still to be seen.
My update for the week.
I will add, I am short on SPY and DIA but only to the 99% target. Then I will likely get out because of the real bipolar attitude SPY has adopted.
Trade safe everyone!
Thought I'd jump in to mention about that pretty wild close we had today and share what the math sort of points out based on Today's PA.
Quickly, just a recap of the previous ideas, our weekly SPY targets were as such:
Bull:
1. 402.11
2. 404.78
3. 407.45
Bear:
1. 392.03
2. 388.51
3. 384.99
And our weekly DIA targets were:
Bull:
1. 339.08 (50% prob)
2. 341.66 (6.1% prob)
3. 344.24 (<0.50% prob)
Bear
1.335.29 (38% prob)
2. 331.92 (0.3% prob)
3. 328.55 (<0.3% prob)
Probability only very slightly favoured 392.03 more than 402 on SPY and probability clearly favoured 339.08 more on DIA than 335.29.
We reached the first Bull target on DIA but not on SPY.
400 is quite the psychological level for SPY that it has traditionally struggled with. I thought today for sure it would burst through it and just go right for 402 but it did not.
However, based on that massive rejection we saw leading into close and based on the real time math projections, here is what we know, what I see, what we can assume and what to look out for.
What we know:
- 400 was rejected
- DIA touched its first real time weekly high level and rejected (see chart below):
- SPY avoided reaching its first weekly prospective target (402) and its first real time weekly high level (see main chart above)
- The weekly guaranteed target (the target the math calculates each week that is hit 99% of the time) is trailing far below the PA on both SPY and DIA.
It is the yellow line you see in the SPY and DIA chart. The levels are:
SPY: 393.97
DIA: 335.33
- Volume was low and if you read my last idea, you know that we are haemorrhaging buyers. The chart is repeated below for your convenience:
What I see:
I pointed it out in the last idea, but I do see a giant wedge on SPY and DIA, with a breakdown today, really noticeable on DIA:
I also notice that, on the 1 hour, SPY left us on a sort of bear flag:
- Traditionally, in the past, when DIA rejects its first RT weekly high level and has its guarenteed target below PA, it leads to a bearish week. Let's look at a chart as an example. This is where DIA is currently:
And here is a similar setup from some weeks ago:
What we can assume:
This is what we can assume based on statistics or market customs. But they are not necessarily ALWAYS valid.
- Traditionally, SPY does not like to touch its prospective bull targets (in this case 402, 404 and 407) if its going to reach its prospective bear targets (this week they are 392, 388, 384). This is an observation and not a rule, but its a persuasive custom that SPY generally follows under normal circumstances.
- The same is said for the Real time targets on SPY. If it doesn't have an interest in being bullish, it will tend to avoid the real time high targets and head straight for thee low targets (shown in the main chart above).
What to look out for:
- We can anticipate touching those yellow targets probably by tomorrow.
- I think its too early to convert 100% bearish. While this PA is damming, the PA leading into CPI was pretty damming too and it was a rug pull.
- We want to see SPY make contact with its first, RT monthly low target at 390.25 AND NOT REJECT to really solidify a bearish thesis.
- We want to ensure that SPY and DIA are not going to bounce off their 99% target and go back up, which has been known to happen:
- We also need to be aware of the multiple catalysts this week that can make the market do whatever it has on its mind. Whether that be selling or bullishness, its still to be seen.
My update for the week.
I will add, I am short on SPY and DIA but only to the 99% target. Then I will likely get out because of the real bipolar attitude SPY has adopted.
Trade safe everyone!
Comment:
We hit the 99% target on DIA, fell short on SPY.
I am out of all shorts, I Just took profits on everything ttoday.
SPY is being a real disaster. Its looking like it wants to try to go higher but just can't gain the steam.
I am watching closely as an observer but not a participant at this point in SPY's shenanigans. Its far too volatile to make a viable day trading candidate.
I will continue watching and if I see anything interesting, I will share!
Otherwise, everything remains the same. Probs, targets, etc. Nothing really changes. You just have a spastic stock that doesn't know if its coming or going lol!
Good luck everyone!
I am out of all shorts, I Just took profits on everything ttoday.
SPY is being a real disaster. Its looking like it wants to try to go higher but just can't gain the steam.
I am watching closely as an observer but not a participant at this point in SPY's shenanigans. Its far too volatile to make a viable day trading candidate.
I will continue watching and if I see anything interesting, I will share!
Otherwise, everything remains the same. Probs, targets, etc. Nothing really changes. You just have a spastic stock that doesn't know if its coming or going lol!
Good luck everyone!
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Bullish bird with break up pattern and bull flag:
Be careful being too short biased on this!!!