Dow Jones Ind Avg vs Retraced Spikes in VIX
I define a spike to be when the VIX jumps by 5 points and then retraces by 75%. Once that spike has retraced, it creates a floor of support for the market for future pullbacks to hold. We have two of those levels from May and July which the market is pulling back to at this juncture. The September spike has failed to hold, which is the 18,000 level. Typically the market holds the TOP of the 75% retracement level on a pullback.
It "looks like" the market is "breaking down" on this time frame, with lower highs and lower lows, but what you can't see on this time frame is that buyers lurk just below the surface from the May & July time-frames where accumulation took place. We are now re-testing those buyers and given the US Presidential Election on Nov 8th, rational investors may hold off and "wait and see" what happens.
Spikes In VIX drive the market lower and create bargains for long term investors to buy and accumulate shares at a discount. In the long run, spikes in VIX are opportunities for larger, longer term investors to accumulate shares from shorter term, smaller investors.
An extra comment: The biggest spikes in VIX create the biggest bottoms in the market, so therefore, use the bigger spikes in VIX to find the bigger support levels. The smaller, only 5+ point rallies in VIX give less reliable levels, but still useful.
Look for my other charts on this pattern which has given so many reliable buy signals before.
Tim 9:39AM EST, Nov 3, 2016 17999.97 DJIA
PS - We all are nervous ahead of the USPOTUS election. Earnings season is coming to a close.
It "looks like" the market is "breaking down" on this time frame, with lower highs and lower lows, but what you can't see on this time frame is that buyers lurk just below the surface from the May & July time-frames where accumulation took place. We are now re-testing those buyers and given the US Presidential Election on Nov 8th, rational investors may hold off and "wait and see" what happens.
Spikes In VIX drive the market lower and create bargains for long term investors to buy and accumulate shares at a discount. In the long run, spikes in VIX are opportunities for larger, longer term investors to accumulate shares from shorter term, smaller investors.
An extra comment: The biggest spikes in VIX create the biggest bottoms in the market, so therefore, use the bigger spikes in VIX to find the bigger support levels. The smaller, only 5+ point rallies in VIX give less reliable levels, but still useful.
Look for my other charts on this pattern which has given so many reliable buy signals before.
Tim 9:39AM EST, Nov 3, 2016 17999.97 DJIA
PS - We all are nervous ahead of the USPOTUS election. Earnings season is coming to a close.
Comment:
We are 0.1 point away from a VIX spike here and we can monitor for another signal over the coming days.
Tim 6/21/2018 3:52PM EST
We are 0.1 point away from a VIX spike here and we can monitor for another signal over the coming days.
Tim 6/21/2018 3:52PM EST
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Now that VIX has retraced 75% again, we have another MAJOR SUPPORT level to provide support for the next pullback.