Weekly Global Markets Review (200 WMA)
Weekly Markets Recap Overview:
**Hi all, I plan to update this publication on a weekly basis with different assets and detail. It will be a work in process as I get the framework right. Hope you enjoy**
Moving Average in all charts - 200 Week MA (Long term trend indicator)
DJI - [Bullish-Neutral]
Technical picture:
Market is still trading above its 200 WMA. There was a nice V bottom recovery. During this 10 year bull market it has been proven to buy the dip has worked anytime the DJI has touched the 200 WMA. If DJI falls below it's knees will be chopped and the head will be decapitated. Tremendous selling pressure. Get ready for a long term recession.
Risks:
*Fed - they have positively come out and said they will watch the equity markets before hiking rates. This has fueled the V bottom recovery.
*Trade wars
*Oil prices - Watch OPEC and how they deal with supply
*Global growth slowing i.e. China? U.S.? (conflicting data). Earnings reports show mixed results. Global equity markets volatility up on mixed data.
*Geo-political risks related on wars, immigration, nuclear weapons (US, Russia, China, Japan, N. Korea, several European countries all crossing hairs here).
GOLD - [BULL]
Technical Picture:
Gold has show lots of strength and has moved above it's 200 WMA signaling a longer term trend. This comes surprisingly despite a stronger dollar the past year, but it is currently showing weakness)
IHS pattern which is bullish and the Head is at the bottom of a longer term bear trend. So this gives it strength. Pattern target is ~1800/ounce.
Risks:
*Global Equity markets: Gold has an inverse relationship with equity markets. Will have to monitor if equity market recovery is sustainable.
*Dollar - Gold has positive relationship. Interest rate hikes make the dollar stronger as equity markets decline. Gold usually thrives in this market.
Geo Political uncertainty is expected to escalate in 2019. This should benefit Gold.
BTC - [Bullish-Neutral]
Technical Picture:
Trading above it's 200 WMA. Market capitulated from 6k to 3k and touched its 200 WMA. Bulls showed strength buying this technical price point.
IHS pattern is continuing to develop and the right shoulder should confirm or get rejected near the neckline ($4,250). This has a pattern target near 78.6% extension from the lows in a bull scenario.
If BTC falls below 3.5k we will see a retest of the lows. If BTC falls below 3k and it's 200 WMA this will reinforce a 2019 bear market scenario. It's very important we do not spend anytime below this level.
Risks:
*Global regulation
*Major Exchange hacks
*Direct links to terrorism funding
US Dollar - [Bearish]
Technical Picture:
Dollar showed strength in 2018 which surprised many. It moved above its 200 WMA and has held above this level, but showing some technical weakness. There have been seveal longer shadow wicks hitting below the 200 WMA.
The pattern is near term bearish and showing a possible IHS. The right should could be in the process of developing, but so much of this hinges on how Fed handle interest rates.
Risks:
*Fed - let's watch policy decisions throughout 2019. They say only 1-2 more hikes, but let's see.
*Global Economic Growth
*Geo Political
**Hi all, I plan to update this publication on a weekly basis with different assets and detail. It will be a work in process as I get the framework right. Hope you enjoy**
Moving Average in all charts - 200 Week MA (Long term trend indicator)
DJI - [Bullish-Neutral]
Technical picture:
Market is still trading above its 200 WMA. There was a nice V bottom recovery. During this 10 year bull market it has been proven to buy the dip has worked anytime the DJI has touched the 200 WMA. If DJI falls below it's knees will be chopped and the head will be decapitated. Tremendous selling pressure. Get ready for a long term recession.
Risks:
*Fed - they have positively come out and said they will watch the equity markets before hiking rates. This has fueled the V bottom recovery.
*Trade wars
*Oil prices - Watch OPEC and how they deal with supply
*Global growth slowing i.e. China? U.S.? (conflicting data). Earnings reports show mixed results. Global equity markets volatility up on mixed data.
*Geo-political risks related on wars, immigration, nuclear weapons (US, Russia, China, Japan, N. Korea, several European countries all crossing hairs here).
GOLD - [BULL]
Technical Picture:
Gold has show lots of strength and has moved above it's 200 WMA signaling a longer term trend. This comes surprisingly despite a stronger dollar the past year, but it is currently showing weakness)
IHS pattern which is bullish and the Head is at the bottom of a longer term bear trend. So this gives it strength. Pattern target is ~1800/ounce.
Risks:
*Global Equity markets: Gold has an inverse relationship with equity markets. Will have to monitor if equity market recovery is sustainable.
*Dollar - Gold has positive relationship. Interest rate hikes make the dollar stronger as equity markets decline. Gold usually thrives in this market.
Geo Political uncertainty is expected to escalate in 2019. This should benefit Gold.
BTC - [Bullish-Neutral]
Technical Picture:
Trading above it's 200 WMA. Market capitulated from 6k to 3k and touched its 200 WMA. Bulls showed strength buying this technical price point.
IHS pattern is continuing to develop and the right shoulder should confirm or get rejected near the neckline ($4,250). This has a pattern target near 78.6% extension from the lows in a bull scenario.
If BTC falls below 3.5k we will see a retest of the lows. If BTC falls below 3k and it's 200 WMA this will reinforce a 2019 bear market scenario. It's very important we do not spend anytime below this level.
Risks:
*Global regulation
*Major Exchange hacks
*Direct links to terrorism funding
US Dollar - [Bearish]
Technical Picture:
Dollar showed strength in 2018 which surprised many. It moved above its 200 WMA and has held above this level, but showing some technical weakness. There have been seveal longer shadow wicks hitting below the 200 WMA.
The pattern is near term bearish and showing a possible IHS. The right should could be in the process of developing, but so much of this hinges on how Fed handle interest rates.
Risks:
*Fed - let's watch policy decisions throughout 2019. They say only 1-2 more hikes, but let's see.
*Global Economic Growth
*Geo Political