Dow Jones: either up or down

The index is at the 21.4% Fibo retracement (March 23, 2020 retracement to the last top).
In the inverse retracement from January 3, 2022 to June 13, 2022, the price seems to have corrected in the region of 38.2%.
And it is in a bullish channel which in this context can be called a bearish flag.
The Stochastic RSI is retesting a resistance for the third time.

What to expect
In a bullish scenario, it is necessary for the price to fall at most to halfway through the channel, and remain above the 21.4% major retracement.
If it breaks the 38.2% inverse retracement, it will at least test the next 50% retracement.

Now, if it stays in the lower half of the channel, there is a higher probability of going all the way to the 38.2% retracement.