Tax-cut Euphoria Bubble causes turbulence

DJ:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
There was a statistically significant bump-up in the stock market following Trump's presidential victory. (*) In 2017, the positive slope of support clearly increased from long-term under Obama (2009 to 2015) forming the shaded area I'm calling a 'bubble' (not to mention the parabolic slope above it). I expect this was due to anticipation that tax cuts would stimulate the economy. However, the exuberance was excessive, an overestimation, and long-term support is more realistic wrt GDP. I expect the turbulence we've seen since early 2018 reflects the tenuous value of the overestimation and the weight of the long-term trend keeps the bull tethered.

The red star isn't so much a prediction as pointing to the 'attractor' that's pulling the market forward along a turbulent 'flat' trend, trying to guiding it toward on a more realistic track. Tax cuts and deregulation may produce real increased GDP growth, causing the trend will rise higher than the red star. Let's hope! And let's hope things don't fall lower than the star!

(*) archive.is/33RPK

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