iGoddard

iGoddard

Looking at the Total US Stock Market (VTI), we can see an obvious arching formation to the Covid-crater rebound, like the decaying upward trajectory of a thrown ball. This trend is characterized by short intervals of consolidation followed by breakouts that exert less upward momentum than the prior breakout. Each of those consolidation phases knocks the rebound's...

iGoddard

At this moment NDX feels hot, but from a technical perspective, it appears to be forming a rising wedge. According to Investopedia, a rising wedge will most likely breakdown. (1) In contrast, we can see NDX formed a symmetrical triangle last year, which are not expected to be more likely to break up or down. (2) That symmetrical triangle was slightly rising, with...

iGoddard

Many have observed that gold (using GLD here as a reliable proxy) might be forming a huge cup-and-handle pattern (1,2). That may prove to be the case. However, at the moment, the similarity of the unfolding trend to the 2011-13 topping pattern seems noteworthy in itself. Perhaps we’re seeing the start of the cup-and-handle leading to an upward bull run, or perhaps...

iGoddard

Schwab's real estate (RE) ETF SCHH, (1) looks poised for at least 20% growth to reach its pre-Covid inflation-adjusted status, shown in the lower BLUE trend. Because M2 has been so extremely inflated post-Covid, (2) you really have to control for its expected distortion of equity prices. The GOLD-colored trend is SCHH unadjusted. There aren't too many unfinished...

iGoddard

Dividing SPX by the money supply (M2) removes distortions caused by changes in the supply of money (dollars). (1) Now, suddenly the skyrocketing SPX surge following the Covid crater isn't so insane, in fact, it has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels! Dividing by M2 arguably gives a more realistic view of equities, revealing the % of money out there that people are...

iGoddard

This shows the consistent channel the SPX has demonstrably been following since the Great Recession of 2009. And it shows that since Dec 2020, it has strongly overshot the channel. It seems rational, therefore, to assume it needs to correct back into this channel. My red stars are not exact predictions, they are intended to point out possible correction levels in...

iGoddard

I'd anticipate it breaking out higher based on EPD's fundamentals, but with the background mood of the market at this exact moment (a growing feeling that with non-stop record-breaking highs we've got to be nearing a top), it might actually breakdown lower. Also, EPD's flagging momentum gives a breaking-downward feeling despite its overall bullish trend. We shall see...

iGoddard

The falling of share price and slowness to rebound after Microsoft posted stellar earnings last week suggests MSFT is highly overvalued and correction or stagnation is likely for the near future. This model posits some possible future trends that are more optimistic than not, but emphasizes the likelihood of corrective stagnation keeping runaway price tethered to...

iGoddard

BABA appears to be forming a coiling wedge, or descending triangle, off of a prior bullish trend. So a strong break out or down seems likely on the classical expectations of this formation. Which will it be? It seems easier, based on Alibaba's fundamentals, as well as retested support forming the base of this triangle, that it will break out (ie, up), not down....

iGoddard

Shorter-term range than "Long-term Support Analysis," and with more elaboration on some possible paths and rebounds (marked by red stars) based on long-term support. Here's "Long-term Support Analysis"

iGoddard

Taking a big-picture look at AAPL and its changing support and overall sweep to 'get the gist' of its possible futures.

iGoddard

This sudden highly volatile upward surge doesn't bode well long-term, imo.

iGoddard

Trump's presidency was followed by a statistically significant increase in stock prices,(*) which climbed parabolically during anticipation of tax cuts and consequent economic stimulation. Even if Trump's agenda proves to stimulate the economy long-term, at this moment in time, and since February 2018, investors are less confident in their prior rosey economic...

iGoddard

There was a statistically significant bump-up in the stock market following Trump's presidential victory. (*) In 2017, the positive slope of support clearly increased from long-term under Obama (2009 to 2015) forming the shaded area I'm calling a 'bubble' (not to mention the parabolic slope above it). I expect this was due to anticipation that tax cuts would...

iGoddard

Despite FB's historic one-day fall, its current price is still comfortably within its long-term bullish trend. That said, its price may fall further.

iGoddard

A possible future course... Correction to the trend from 2009 to 2015, which amounts to an elimination of the statistically significant equities boost following Trump's election. (*) I don't see why such a correction is necessary, but from a strictly technical pov, this depicts a possible level of support we might see if equities investments slacken. Should the...

iGoddard

While this week saw the largest decline since March, it's still comfortably within the wave-train of the bullish 2017 trend.

iGoddard

Kinda lookin like we're back on track, and the other indices (SPX and NDX) suggest as much even moreso. Assuming I've not succumb to irrational pollyannaism, my reading is there was a euphoric overvaluation during tax-cut anticipation starting around Sept 2017, and that overvaluation was exposed as such when the market encountered worries that would normally not...