iGoddard

iGoddard Updated 

Easily the best cash-flow dividend ETF, AMEX:SCHD seems to be in the process of getting back on its long-term track following the easy money excesses of the Fed's post-pandemic policies. This forecast is a bullish scenario, imo, that might even accommodate a modest recession. The large-cap value stocks in SCHD tend to hold up well during market volatility.

iGoddard

The total stock market tracked by AMEX:VTI looks fairly bullish in that we are now trending along post-Great Recession (GR) lows for the upper non-recessionary channel defined since the GR. So if no recession is ahead of us (a very BIG if), things ought to be looking up. The two most recent recessions each hit the same lowest bound in this two-tiered channel...

iGoddard

Since the Great Depression the S&P 500 tracks U.S. GDP, both log graphed here such that the slope of the channel is the log slope of U.S. GDP. Looking for some kind of pattern, there might be a ~33 year wave-like pattern repeating twice since 1929 and hypothetically a third time, as depicted. The likelihood of the third repetition happing I have no confidence...

iGoddard

Hmm... Do we see a meaningful pattern? Note that the post-Great Recession bubble-like tear climbs at approximately the same angle as the dot.com and housing bubbles. It's almost like some similar causal phenomenon that spouts unsustainable upward bursts was initiation three times in a row, with the last burst towering to never before seen heights. How far will it correct?

iGoddard

A simple path projection of NAS100USD assuming a continuity of past trajectory into the future.

iGoddard Updated 

At this moment NDX feels hot, but from a technical perspective, it appears to be forming a rising wedge. According to Investopedia, a rising wedge will most likely breakdown. (1) In contrast, we can see NDX formed a symmetrical triangle last year, which are not expected to be more likely to break up or down. (2) That symmetrical triangle was slightly rising, with...

iGoddard

Looking at the Total US Stock Market (VTI), we can see an obvious arching formation to the Covid-crater rebound, like the decaying upward trajectory of a thrown ball. This trend is characterized by short intervals of consolidation followed by breakouts that exert less upward momentum than the prior breakout. Each of those consolidation phases knocks the rebound's...

iGoddard

Many have observed that gold (using GLD here as a reliable proxy) might be forming a huge cup-and-handle pattern (1,2). That may prove to be the case. However, at the moment, the similarity of the unfolding trend to the 2011-13 topping pattern seems noteworthy in itself. Perhaps we’re seeing the start of the cup-and-handle leading to an upward bull run, or perhaps...

iGoddard

Schwab's real estate (RE) ETF SCHH, (1) looks poised for at least 20% growth to reach its pre-Covid inflation-adjusted status, shown in the lower BLUE trend. Because M2 has been so extremely inflated post-Covid, (2) you really have to control for its expected distortion of equity prices. The GOLD-colored trend is SCHH unadjusted. There aren't too many unfinished...

iGoddard Updated 

Dividing SPX by the money supply (M2) removes distortions caused by changes in the supply of money (dollars). (1) Now, suddenly the skyrocketing SPX surge following the Covid crater isn't so insane, in fact, it has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels! Dividing by M2 arguably gives a more realistic view of equities, revealing the % of money out there that people are...

iGoddard Updated 

This shows the consistent channel the SPX has demonstrably been following since the Great Recession of 2009. And it shows that since Dec 2020, it has strongly overshot the channel. It seems rational, therefore, to assume it needs to correct back into this channel. My red stars are not exact predictions, they are intended to point out possible correction levels in...

iGoddard

I'd anticipate it breaking out higher based on EPD's fundamentals, but with the background mood of the market at this exact moment (a growing feeling that with non-stop record-breaking highs we've got to be nearing a top), it might actually breakdown lower. Also, EPD's flagging momentum gives a breaking-downward feeling despite its overall bullish trend. We shall see...

iGoddard Updated 

BABA appears to be forming a coiling wedge, or descending triangle, off of a prior bullish trend. So a strong break out or down seems likely on the classical expectations of this formation. Which will it be? It seems easier, based on Alibaba's fundamentals, as well as retested support forming the base of this triangle, that it will break out (ie, up), not down....

iGoddard

The falling of share price and slowness to rebound after Microsoft posted stellar earnings last week suggests MSFT is highly overvalued and correction or stagnation is likely for the near future. This model posits some possible future trends that are more optimistic than not, but emphasizes the likelihood of corrective stagnation keeping runaway price tethered to...

iGoddard

Shorter-term range than "Long-term Support Analysis," and with more elaboration on some possible paths and rebounds (marked by red stars) based on long-term support. Here's "Long-term Support Analysis"

iGoddard

Taking a big-picture look at AAPL and its changing support and overall sweep to 'get the gist' of its possible futures.

iGoddard Updated 

This sudden highly volatile upward surge doesn't bode well long-term, imo.

iGoddard

Trump's presidency was followed by a statistically significant increase in stock prices,(*) which climbed parabolically during anticipation of tax cuts and consequent economic stimulation. Even if Trump's agenda proves to stimulate the economy long-term, at this moment in time, and since February 2018, investors are less confident in their prior rosey economic...