After the initial breakout from the smaller bearish dome, I felt confident that the bullish arc would play out and take DOT to $95+ by year end.
But alas... it was a false breakout! The parachain auctions didn't pump the price nearly as much as expected, and left a lot of us DOT hodlers scratching our heads.
Looks like everyone wishing to participate in crowd loans had seen the auctions coming way ahead of time and filled their bags early.
The upward parabolic scenario was invalidated, and the price dropped right back into the bearish dome arc, continuing its path down along the arc wall.
This arc is threatening to take the price all the way back to the base support line as low as $20.
In this updated chart, I stretch the bullish arc out as far as possible, using daily closes and ignoring the wicks.
Drawing it that way can get us to about December 22 at the latest before one of the arcs must break and we know which way DOT is heading in the mid-term.
Will moonbeam, acala, and the other parachain winners bring a flood of new users to Polkadot after launching on December 17th, or will it completely flop as even more market momentum goes to ETH and SOL?
Let's see. My opinion is that there's a better chance of break upwards if the broader market stays bullish.
Even Litecoin had its time to shine this cycle, and Polkadot has a way better chance for actual adoption and broad use. Its day to pump will come!
I'm betting the $100+ scenario plays out.
Good luck and have fun.
But alas... it was a false breakout! The parachain auctions didn't pump the price nearly as much as expected, and left a lot of us DOT hodlers scratching our heads.
Looks like everyone wishing to participate in crowd loans had seen the auctions coming way ahead of time and filled their bags early.
The upward parabolic scenario was invalidated, and the price dropped right back into the bearish dome arc, continuing its path down along the arc wall.
This arc is threatening to take the price all the way back to the base support line as low as $20.
In this updated chart, I stretch the bullish arc out as far as possible, using daily closes and ignoring the wicks.
Drawing it that way can get us to about December 22 at the latest before one of the arcs must break and we know which way DOT is heading in the mid-term.
Will moonbeam, acala, and the other parachain winners bring a flood of new users to Polkadot after launching on December 17th, or will it completely flop as even more market momentum goes to ETH and SOL?
Let's see. My opinion is that there's a better chance of break upwards if the broader market stays bullish.
Even Litecoin had its time to shine this cycle, and Polkadot has a way better chance for actual adoption and broad use. Its day to pump will come!
I'm betting the $100+ scenario plays out.
Good luck and have fun.
Comment:
The price touched the floor of the upward arc wall at around $24.35 and had a nice bounce up from it. This analysis is looking accurate so far. Both arcs are still in play.
Comment:
Dome arc confirmed. Set buys between $20-21. It will 5x to the top of the channel from there.