OlympusLab

DXY Potential Forecast | Post NFP | 13th March 2023

Short
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
Fundamental Backdrop
1. NFP print came out 311k vs 224k forecasted.
2. Average hourly earnings m/m printed 0.2% compared to 0.3% forecasted.
3. Unemployment rate came out at 3.6% vs 3.4% forecasted.
4. Resulted in heavy bearish USD sentiments due to the wage inflation decreasing and unemployment rate increasing.
5. This shows the effects of rate hikes by the Fed and hence sentiments believe that the Fed now has lesser incentive to hike by 50bps in the upcoming FOMC.
6. All eyes will now be on CPI release this week and if CPI drops, we could see further downside pressure on the DXY.

Technical Confluences
1. Price reacted from a H4 resistance zone at 104.6 and has since went lower.
2. Very strong bearish pressure from Monday's asian open.
3. Price action has shifted market structure to bearish.
4. Would be appropriate to look for short positions on the USD.

Idea
Price can potentially come lower to tap into the key support level at 102.65.






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