Hey traders,
The markets have been good, very interesting to see all the volatility kick in around the world. While enjoying some fresh beans this morning I was thinking about sharing my thoughts regarding the Dollar Index and the markets in general. Let's dig into it.
I've been very bullish for the dollar since March 2021, like most of you guys know from my weekly webinars, what happened back in those months? In Q1 of 2021, price created a new area of monthly demand, within a previous fresh area of monthly demand. Telling me that we're not only bullish with a low probability, but with a double stack on the monthly, the odds are increased enormously. That was not the only thing while creating new demand at the monthly time-frame, the weekly exploded to the upside breaking a long-term weekly trend to the upside, and like I always teach; You look at the place where the move initiated from, don't take a trendline break re-test, take the zone that is left behind before the break of that key catalyst. To summarize, monthly stacked with another monthly area of demand, on top a new fresh area of weekly demand is created due to price breaking its trend. From there, the daily chart turned into a bullish trend, which is probably coming to its end very soon.
Why is the trend ending? That's pretty clear if you analyze the charts objectively. Let's do a proper multi time-frame analysis starting at the Quarterly time-frame. Price is sitting in quarterly supply, telling me that price is very likely to turn bearish for atleast a few weeks. But what happens if that's correct? Firstly, the Monthly will be rejecting its monthly supply area and the monthly long-term trendline from back in 2017. Secondly, the Weekly will roll-over and create new weekly supply because it takes out the weekly bullish trend.
To time this one, the daily is rejecting some value at the moment, the savest thing would be waiting for a daily trend change, or new supply to be created, which is not the case yet and can take a few weeks to develop. The more risky approach is looking for shorts already around these levels, I recommend a more swing approach ofcourse.
Hope you're doing well! Let me know what you think.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld
The markets have been good, very interesting to see all the volatility kick in around the world. While enjoying some fresh beans this morning I was thinking about sharing my thoughts regarding the Dollar Index and the markets in general. Let's dig into it.
I've been very bullish for the dollar since March 2021, like most of you guys know from my weekly webinars, what happened back in those months? In Q1 of 2021, price created a new area of monthly demand, within a previous fresh area of monthly demand. Telling me that we're not only bullish with a low probability, but with a double stack on the monthly, the odds are increased enormously. That was not the only thing while creating new demand at the monthly time-frame, the weekly exploded to the upside breaking a long-term weekly trend to the upside, and like I always teach; You look at the place where the move initiated from, don't take a trendline break re-test, take the zone that is left behind before the break of that key catalyst. To summarize, monthly stacked with another monthly area of demand, on top a new fresh area of weekly demand is created due to price breaking its trend. From there, the daily chart turned into a bullish trend, which is probably coming to its end very soon.
Why is the trend ending? That's pretty clear if you analyze the charts objectively. Let's do a proper multi time-frame analysis starting at the Quarterly time-frame. Price is sitting in quarterly supply, telling me that price is very likely to turn bearish for atleast a few weeks. But what happens if that's correct? Firstly, the Monthly will be rejecting its monthly supply area and the monthly long-term trendline from back in 2017. Secondly, the Weekly will roll-over and create new weekly supply because it takes out the weekly bullish trend.
To time this one, the daily is rejecting some value at the moment, the savest thing would be waiting for a daily trend change, or new supply to be created, which is not the case yet and can take a few weeks to develop. The more risky approach is looking for shorts already around these levels, I recommend a more swing approach ofcourse.
Hope you're doing well! Let me know what you think.
Kind regards,
Max Nieveld