The big picture has been changing rapidly and seriously!
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup will remain long term bullish, but a massive correction has started, which can be deep and quick to retest Kijun Sen, so price has chance to retrace to 93,00-94,00
- Weekly Heikin Ashi signal is firm bearish now: red candles in a row, haDelta/SMA3 bearish below zero, HA Oscillator switched to bearish.
- Very important change: Price has good chance to close below Tenkan Sen (9 weeks average) after 48 weeks!!!
This Bull will have a leg down now, maybe giving back quite a lot of this extremely strong bullish gain. I am not a Fibonacci expert, but I put on a Fib retracement this time, starting from the Kumo breakout. 0,382 retracement level is ard 93,25, which is pretty much in-line with the weekly Kijun Sen.
Daily:
- Ichimoku signal turned to neutral, with bearish bias: weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross happened, Price trades in the cloud. Tenkan Sen and Senkou A lines started to point down. There will be more pressure on USD, especially if Price breaks below the Kumo. Chikou Span is also below past candles.
- Heikin Ashi signal turned firm bearish after a last attempt to move back above Kijun Sen. After trying for three days, the break through failed, so from now Kijun Sen acts as bearish support (bullish resistance).
- First horizontal level is being attacked too. However as there is still some room till the bottom of the current Kumo, we may see one more spike and a try to pull Price higher towards Kumo top and Kijun Sen. A real bearish acceleration would take place below 96,00.
In my honest opinion it is not a good risk-reward to stay long USD at all. This trend was cool, maybe one of the best in the last 5 years, but it is over for now. Volatility will increase, USD will trade choppy and will likely drop more between May-August, before mkt starts to re-price a possible rate hike later this year.
I think the proper position for the next few months is flat, or slight and selective short USD, long Gold, long US Treasury Bonds.
(Equities? -> don't ask me! That is the only asset class where I am always bearish biased :-). )
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup will remain long term bullish, but a massive correction has started, which can be deep and quick to retest Kijun Sen, so price has chance to retrace to 93,00-94,00
- Weekly Heikin Ashi signal is firm bearish now: red candles in a row, haDelta/SMA3 bearish below zero, HA Oscillator switched to bearish.
- Very important change: Price has good chance to close below Tenkan Sen (9 weeks average) after 48 weeks!!!
This Bull will have a leg down now, maybe giving back quite a lot of this extremely strong bullish gain. I am not a Fibonacci expert, but I put on a Fib retracement this time, starting from the Kumo breakout. 0,382 retracement level is ard 93,25, which is pretty much in-line with the weekly Kijun Sen.
Daily:
- Ichimoku signal turned to neutral, with bearish bias: weak bearish Tenkan/Kijun cross happened, Price trades in the cloud. Tenkan Sen and Senkou A lines started to point down. There will be more pressure on USD, especially if Price breaks below the Kumo. Chikou Span is also below past candles.
- Heikin Ashi signal turned firm bearish after a last attempt to move back above Kijun Sen. After trying for three days, the break through failed, so from now Kijun Sen acts as bearish support (bullish resistance).
- First horizontal level is being attacked too. However as there is still some room till the bottom of the current Kumo, we may see one more spike and a try to pull Price higher towards Kumo top and Kijun Sen. A real bearish acceleration would take place below 96,00.
In my honest opinion it is not a good risk-reward to stay long USD at all. This trend was cool, maybe one of the best in the last 5 years, but it is over for now. Volatility will increase, USD will trade choppy and will likely drop more between May-August, before mkt starts to re-price a possible rate hike later this year.
I think the proper position for the next few months is flat, or slight and selective short USD, long Gold, long US Treasury Bonds.
(Equities? -> don't ask me! That is the only asset class where I am always bearish biased :-). )
