DXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 20% DXY, 80% Cash.
*DXY and Long-Term US Treasuries are down after a barely dovish October CPI print that has investors thinking that the Fed is going to somehow pause rates hikes in 2023 or slow down on December 14th. Equities benefited from this and if it wasn't for the FTX/Alameda fallout then Cryptos may also be benefitting from this recent transition back to Risk-On. Bad headlines keep coming out for FTX as a large portion of their remaining assets (around ~$700m) were "illegally moved" last night after they filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy earlier in the day; after hearing about the FTX backdoors that only SBF and 3 other people knew of, it's hard not to be skeptical of who orchestrated this. The Fed has made it abundantly clear that they still have a ways to go before bringing the federal funds rate to a sufficiently restrictive level, and if there's one thing that we learned in 2020 and this year, it's to not fight the Fed. Keep an eye out for what Russia decides to do about the Grain Deal with Ukraine that's set to expire next Saturday 11/19.
Key Upcoming Dates: Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; US October Retail Sales at 830am EST 11/16; US October Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 11/17; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .*
Price is currently trending down at ~$106.41 and broke below $108.04 support after falling 4% on the CPI report. Parabolic SAR is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 32 with no signs of trough formation, the next support is at 23. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 10.25 as it approaches a retest of 9 support. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -0.75 as it approaches a test of -0.83 support for the first time since July 2020. ADX is currently trending up at 16 after forming a trough at 13 as Price continues falling, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $108.04 resistance. However, if Price keeps going down, it will likely test the 200MA at ~$104.75 as support for the first time since June 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $108.04.
*DXY and Long-Term US Treasuries are down after a barely dovish October CPI print that has investors thinking that the Fed is going to somehow pause rates hikes in 2023 or slow down on December 14th. Equities benefited from this and if it wasn't for the FTX/Alameda fallout then Cryptos may also be benefitting from this recent transition back to Risk-On. Bad headlines keep coming out for FTX as a large portion of their remaining assets (around ~$700m) were "illegally moved" last night after they filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy earlier in the day; after hearing about the FTX backdoors that only SBF and 3 other people knew of, it's hard not to be skeptical of who orchestrated this. The Fed has made it abundantly clear that they still have a ways to go before bringing the federal funds rate to a sufficiently restrictive level, and if there's one thing that we learned in 2020 and this year, it's to not fight the Fed. Keep an eye out for what Russia decides to do about the Grain Deal with Ukraine that's set to expire next Saturday 11/19.
Key Upcoming Dates: Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; US October Retail Sales at 830am EST 11/16; US October Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 11/17; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .*
Price is currently trending down at ~$106.41 and broke below $108.04 support after falling 4% on the CPI report. Parabolic SAR is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 32 with no signs of trough formation, the next support is at 23. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 10.25 as it approaches a retest of 9 support. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -0.75 as it approaches a test of -0.83 support for the first time since July 2020. ADX is currently trending up at 16 after forming a trough at 13 as Price continues falling, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $108.04 resistance. However, if Price keeps going down, it will likely test the 200MA at ~$104.75 as support for the first time since June 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $108.04.